The past few days have included finishing up the big update to the running back projection model. The small school backs are high due to their production scores…until their middling athletic characteristics are added to the mix. There will be a few that check the boxes a la Jerick McKinnon during the pre-draft process, but many of these overachievers end up as old, small, and slow – not what we as dynasty owners and talent accumulators are after.
However, Terrell Watson emerged from the first pass-through with strong numbers. In fact, he is the top small school running back eligible for 2015. Out of Azusa Pacific, Watson has a rushing score of 94 with a receiving score of 53. The last two seasons have seen 151 and 196 rushing yards per game from Watson, including more than 2.0 touchdowns per week over a two-year stretch. He has also averaged 6.1 yards per carry for his college career. In short, Watson has torn up inferior competition like an NFL Draft prospect at that level should.
At a Steven Jackson-like 6’1″+ and 232 pounds, Watson has the bulk to be a heavy contributor in the NFL. The pause button is that his athleticism needs to check out and with small schoolers especially, they could come in lighter with an official measurement as well. Another plus is Watson’s age. Many small school prospects are 23 years old or more by the time they hit the NFL, not the case with Watson, who will be 22.0 when he suits up for Week 1, 2015. Watson warrants keeping on a short list of sleeper names heading into January with an overall projection score of 80.
Terrell Watson: Early Comparable Prospects
Todd Gurley
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Terrell Watson
Chris Wells
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Jeremy Hill
Rashad Jennings
Tody Gerhart
Plenty of time to go in the process and the small school label creates itself own level of cautious optimism, but this is exactly the type of comparable list one wants to see – a bevy of early NFL draft picks and productive later prospects like Rashad Jennings.
As dynasty owners begin to build out their 2015 prospect lists, reserve a spot for Terrell Watson, the early small school running back of choice by the projection model.
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