I briefly hit on Browns rookie running back Glenn Winston with a shrug on the Under the Helmet show a few weeks ago. I glanced at his production and athletic profile in college, which were uninspiring. However, I did not formally write Winston up with a profile. Ben Tate is now gone and Terrance West’s role and appeal continues to erode. That is great news for Isaiah Crowell and his owners, but there is always another running back of note in a backfield worthy of dynasty attention. Is it Glenn Winston?
The Road to the NFL
Glenn Winston started out in college with two seasons at Michigan State. He barely played, even as a sophomore, prior to getting into trouble with the school (plus dismissed) and ultimately getting six months in jail to boot. He reemerged at the football hotbed of Northwood University (also in Michigan) for the 2013 season…at the appealing age of 24 years old. After a lackluster pro day (more on that to come), Winston went undrafted. Initially Winston was rostered by the 49ers prior to sticking with the Browns.
Athleticism
Winston is a big-bodied back (a shade over 6’0″ and 227 pounds), so the big question is if he is even an average mover for that size. The projection model says Winston is not. Running a nearly 4.7 40-time is mediocre even for a 227-pound back, his weight-adjusted 10-yard split also ranks in the bottom 10% of running back prospects since 1999. In short, Winston is not running away from any defender at the NFL level. At least Winston is strong – 22 bench reps – which gives hope of winning some wrestling matches and collisions – a la Trent Richardson between the tackles. His three-cone and shuttle times, even for his size are poor, while his vertical and broad jump scores are above-average. Here are Winston’s closest peers athletically:
- Dwayne Wright
- Charles Scott
- Zurlon Tipton
Dwayne Wright is closest comparable of this group, but had more burst for his size than the equally-non-nimble Glenn Winston. More on the Tipton comparison in the next section, but Winston lacks a very important trait that separates the athletically-similar pair. As one would assume from the introduction to this paragraph, not much to like from Winston on the physical side, other than his sheer size. His overall athleticism score is a deflating 32.
Production
Let’s start with Winston college career 3.9 yards-per-carry average. That is in the bottom 1% of the entire projection model with guys like Michael Cox and Jawan Jamison in recent memory. He barely did anything as a Michigan State sophomore before going to jail. When he came back, as a 24-year-old back in a non-division I program, he was below-average. While 90 rushing yards per game and a little more than a touchdown per contest is passable on the ground, he was invisible in the passing game.
For his career, Winston logged a 29 rushing score and a 3 receiving score, both weighted for age. Even Andre Williams had a receiving score of 7 for goodness sake. In summary, Glenn Winston is not regularly catching passes in the NFL. Using just his production scores, here are some comparable prospects:
- Jerious Norwood
- Cedric Cobbs
- Ahmaad Galloway
- James Wilder Jr.
It is really tough to find a prospect with as little rushing production, combined with non-existent pass game prowess in the model. Why? Because rarely does a drafted running back have that kind of profile and the undrafted ones that flashed in the NFL or I included had a strong aspect of their profile in some regard.
Glenn Winston: The Verdict
Winston is a poor athlete that did not produce at the college level, even at a lower level of competition at an extremely old age relative to his peers. Winston’s overall projection model score of 22 ranks second-lowest of all the 58 running backs included from the 2014 class, including more than 30 undrafted players. Zurlon Tipton is the only undrafted back from the class currently with any semblance of a chance to play and his score of 30 is higher than Winston (plus Tipton is a well above-average pass-catcher in the model). As a point of comparison, Jerome Smith, Trey Watts, Josh Harris, Ladarius Perkins, James Wilder Jr, and Brendan Bigelow are the other undrafted 2014 rookies with an overall projection score below 30. Only Smith has a lower score than Winston.
Like so many players in fantasy, Winston is a highly-situational asset for fantasy owners. Is he more talented than Isaiah Crowell or Terrance West? The model laughs at the mere thought. Could Winston do what Daniel Herron currently is in Indianapolis? To a lesser degree, maybe. Herron has a higher receiving score and much better ‘wiggle’ than Winston by the numbers. That is a good starting point – consider Winston a poor man’s Daniel Herron. The problem is that Crowell and West are not circling the drain in their career like Trent Richardson.
If Winston is ever worth an upgrade, even a marginal one, in a rookie pick swap or swings a deal as an add-on, easily sell him. In deep leagues, there are worse stashes to finish the season as one injury gets Winston on the minds of other dynasty owners, which is a selling opportunity.
