The key months for dynasty startup ADP are: Post-Combine, Post-NFL Draft, August, and January. While ADP certainly has its inherent flaws, it is one of the most efficient ways to quickly gauge the general market value for players and recent trends. Ryan McDowell, whom I affectionately refer to as ‘the oracle’ with his ADP work, has churned out January’s ADP. If you are not already, follow him on twitter @RyanMc23 and all the good things he heads up at DynastyLeagueFootball.com.
My first observation of January’s ADP was ‘look at the top-12 from the preseason’ and what happened five short months later. Here is the top-12 from August:
- Calvin Johnson
- Dez Bryant
- A.J. Green
- Demaryius Thomas
- LeSean McCoy
- Julio Jones
- Jamaal Charles
- Jimmy Graham
- Alshon Jeffery
- Eddie Lacy
- Giovani Bernard
- Brandon Marshall
Dez Bryant, A.J. Green, Demaryius Thomas, and Julio Jones maintained their lofty status after the season. Green had the lagging season of the quartet, but gets a pass by the first way of dynasty drafters in the mock startups.
LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, and Eddie Lacy all slipped to the second round of the ADP. Lacy is more surprising than the two older backs that will be 27 and 28 years old respectively in 2015.
Jimmy Graham essentially switched places with Rob Gronkowski from August, dropping to the mid-2nd as Gronkowski shifts up to the top-10 as the preferred No.1 tight end.
Alshon Jeffery moves down a handful of spots to the early-2nd, not much change. His teammate (for now) Brandon Marshall did not get the benefits of age-insulation, plummetting to 47, yes 47, overall. Marshall was inside the top-25 all last offseason and peaked at 14.2 ADP, but top-12 by the player count, in August. Now well into his 30s, Marshall is highly unlikely to ever see the top-25 again regardless of his on-field production.
That leaves two names from August’s ADP top-12. The first is Giovani Bernard, falling from 13.2 to 35. Looking at the snap breakdown in the Bengals backfield, Bernard had the lead job locked up prior to his midseason injury. Jeremy Hill filled-in and proceeded to run with the job for the rest of the season. Should we have seen this coming? Bernard is on the light side to project as a long-term lead back and Jeremy Hill was a second round pick in his own right. Will Bernard get his job back in 2015? Should he? At a minimum, it reminds us that coaches’ actions can tell us a lot in the offseason and Bernard, who profiled as more of a pace-changer and pass-catcher than rugged chain-mover, should have had more caution in the preseason.
The remaining name is the former 1.01 from August (in a three-man race with Dez Bryant and A.J. Green), Calvin Johnson. After a dinged up 2014 season, and one that saw Golden Tate have his breakout season after coming to Detroit, Johnson now has an ADP of 12. Calvin Johnson will be 29.9 years old for Week 1 and age is now very much a factor. Add in the beating he takes and putting Johnson at the end of a crowded top tier or two amongst the wide receivers is certaintly fair.
Who is New to the Top-12?
In addition to the five wide receivers from Round 1 in August (any surprise that the younger receivers, plus Calvin were the ones that maintained value?), here are the ‘risers’ into the top-12:
LeVeon Bell and Antonio Brown shift up from the top-half of Round 2 into the top-6. In start-2RB mandatory formats, I would not fault anyone for taking LeVeon Bell anywhere in the first round. I would not pull the trigger over most of the younger receivers, but I get it. Antonio Brown is a blend of production and age that offers a middle ground between the rising rookies and long-time studs like Calvin Johnson.
As mentioned above, Rob Gronkowski comes in as No.7 overall and the clear top tight end.
Odell Beckham is the obvious riser and currently second only to Dez Bryant. He was kind of good in 2014….
Andrew Luck, fantasy playoff stinker and all (I kid), is a nearly a round in front of Aaron Rodgers as the top quarterback and sneaking into the end of Round 1.
The final two spots are the top-10 NFL Draft picks at wide receiver in 2014: Mike Evans and Sammy Watkins. Both worthy core assets and moved up from the 18-25 overall range in the preseason.
In 2014 startup drafts, the endpoint was typically in the 1.07-1.09 range to get Alshon Jeffery in the receiver-heavy approach. The first data of the offseason shows a deep receiver pool where Mike Evans or Sammy Watkins is a welcome sight late in the first round, an improvement from the options there five months ago.
