I have seen dozens of Sammy Watkins related tweets scroll across my various timelines recently. Much of it has been centered around the coaching change to Rex Ryan as head coach and Greg Roman as offensive coordinator in Buffalo.
At a minimum I have read that general dynasty owner out there is dropping Sammy Watkins down their rankings a few wide receiver positions. Others are much more aggressively shopping Watkins, looking for the escape hatch, the miniature window to ‘break glass’, or trying to salvage value from the sinking ship known as a top-5 NFL draft pick that was the consensus 1.01 rookie pick less than a year ago, who had the 5th-best age 21 wide receiver season in terms of PPR PPG, in the past 25 years.
Yes, you read that correctly. According to my database Watkins at 12.3 PPR PPG in 2014 is behind only:
- 23.7 Odell Beckham
- 18.9 Randy Moss
- 16.3 Mike Evans
- 14.9 Keenan Allen
That’s it, that’s the list. Two of them happen to be from Sammy Watkins’ loaded 2014 NFL Draft class. Watkins was a consensus top prospect, regardless of position, throughout the NFL Draft community and backed it up through up-and-down (mostly down) quarterback play as a 21-year-old rookie.
My first reaction regarding the coaching changes in Buffalo were mostly with a shoulder shrug. Of course, I am the one that wrote this piece last year about my general thought that coaching changes, from a fantasy – especially dynasty – perspective, are largely overblown and underreacting is my go-to move. In that piece I spoke of the premise that coaches (there are rare exceptions) are not idiots and gravitate to the talent. If a previously used player is now miring down the depth chart or seeing a huge drop in carries or targets – maybe, just maybe they do not warrant them. When I hear a comment about Coach X does this or affects Player Y or fuels the fantasy production of Z, my first question is always ‘why?’
If a coach is known as a pass-heavy guy that loves to sling it around the yard, I think that would change in a hurry if Alex Smith was the quarterback and a 24-year-old Adrian Peterson was in the backfield. There will be an exception or two, but the odds point to a more run-heavy attack than that coach’s previous profile that probably included better quarterbacks and less-skilled running backs.
Back to Sammy Watkins and the coaching changes in Buffalo. I am doing this exercise as I put together the post, so I do not know the outcome of the research. First, let’s look at Rex Ryan. His only experience outside of being defense-only were the past six season as the head coach with the Jets. Here are the personnel ‘highlights’ on offense:
2009
- Mark Sanchez
- Thomas Jones-Shonn Greene
- Jerricho Cotchery-Braylon Edwards-Dustin Keller
You tell me where you are going with the football…it sure is not Mark Sanchez to Jerricho Cotchery. Jones was still churning out production at 31 years old, Shonn Greene was a day two pick and Braylon Edwards was already flaming out from being a top pick years prior in Cleveland. Regardless of my natural tendencies, I would pound the rock too.
2010
- Mark Sanchez
- Ladainian Tomlinson-Shonn Greene
- Santonio Holmes-Braylon Edwards-Santonio Holmes-Dustin Keller
The key component here is Mark Sanchez. Over the length of his Jets tenure he made a few key throws, but consistency and showing abilities to carry an offense? Not in my memory.
2011
- Mark Sanchez
- Shonn Greene-Ladainian Tomlinson
- Santonio Holmes-Plaxico Burress-Dustin Keller
Once again it is Sanchez and retread wide receivers.
2012
- Mark Sanchez
- Shonn Greene-Bilal Powell
- Jeremy Kerley-Santonio Holmes-Stephen Hill-Dustin Keller
More mediocre pieces on offense. Sanchez is replacement level. The running joke about Shonn Greene is that any back can do what he does. Jeremy Kerley leading an NFL passing game in yardage by a country mile in a season? That in and of itself speaks to the ineptitude of the personnel.
2013
- Geno Smith
- Chris Ivory-Bilal Powell
- Jeremy Kerley-Santonio Holmes-David Nelson
Moving from Mark Sanchez to Geno Smith. Sigh. So restarting from an established mediocre quarterback to a rookie with question marks – throwing to Kerley-Holmes-Nelson and a bunch of options I could not muster the energy to type like Kellen Winslow, Stephen Hill, Greg Salas, Jeff Cumberland, Zach Sudfeld (remember him?). The list goes on and on. When I see a depth chart spreading the ball around to THIS extent I think ‘boy, they do not have anyone.’ Now 18 months later, every single one of their pass-catchers are completely valueless in fantasy. Coincidence?
2014
- Geno Smith
- Chris Ivory-Chris Johnson
- Eric Decker-Jeremy Kerley-Percy Harvin-Jace Amaro
Geno Smith improves in year two – still plenty of question marks – but Eric Decker and Jace Amaro are legitimate NFL pass-catchers. Percy Harvin was taking a shot at getting a difference-maker as well. It did not pan out, but Harvin, Decker, Amaro are the best trio – BY FAR – of this entire run of Rex Ryan running the show. They still had a pretty shoddy quarterback running the show.
From this sample of Rex Ryan, no way I am drawing sweeping conclusions about him suppressing great talents in the passing game due to his style of coaching, etc. The best argument would be Eric Decker in 2014, but 962-5 on a team that threw for 3200 and 16 is pretty darn good considering Decker was coming from Denver and Geno Smith is the quarterback.
On to Greg Roman and his four seasons and the offensive coordinator for the 49ers:
2011
- Alex Smith
- Frank Gore-Kendall Hunter
- Michael Crabtree-Vernon Davis-Kyle Williams
Frank Gore in his prime and Kendall Hunter showing promise early in his career. Alex Smith instills confidence is a wide open attack for no offensive coordinator. Heck, look at Andy Reid in Kansas City this year…you think Reid in a vacuum wants to run that type of offense? Braylon Edwards was on this team too. Hey, maybe the Ryan-Roman-Edwards trifecta can get the band back together in Buffalo, make one last run on this thing. Michael Crabtree was in his third straight lagging season to start his career. Even at his ‘peak’ Crabtree did not show much more than being a possession receiver and a high-level WR2 type for fantasy owners. No matter what, it comes back to quarterback and the obvious limitations of Alex Smith.
2012
- Colin Kaepernick
- Frank Gore-Kendall Hunter
- Michael Crabtree-Vernon Davis-Mario Manningham-Randy Moss
Colin Kaepernick is the best quarterback on this growing list and sure enough, Michael Crabtree has his career year (to-date) with 1105-9.
2013
- Colin Kaepernick
- Frank Gore-Kendall Hunter
- Anquan Boldin-Vernon Davis-Michael Crabtree
Anquan Boldin had a darn good season (1179-7) as Michael Crabtree missed most of the season. Vernon Davis had one of his ‘boom’ years amidst the inconsistency with 850-13.
2014
- Colin Kaepernick
- Frank Gore-Carlos Hyde
- Anquan Boldin-Vernon Davis-Michael Crabtree-Steve Johnson
Another good season from Anquan Boldin in his twilight years and Frank Gore keeps trucking along in his early-30s. Michael Crabtree continues to lower his ceiling as even a possession receiver.
Summary
When were the best receiving performances on this list? When the best quarterback of the bunch was combined with the best wide receiver. Shocking, I know. Sammy Watkins is the best wide receiver compared to any of the listed options above. Anquan Boldin in his prime (read: before San Francisco) is probably writing a strongly-worded letter in my direction, but other than that, I am confident in the statement.
The concern with Sammy Watkins should not be the coaching staff or changes. A quarterback is more impactful in my opinion and that was absent in 2014 for Buffalo. While Kyle Orton was an interesting volume-based streaming option for fantasy owners, let’s not remember him like an above-average NFL passer in a vacuum. Orton was QB37 in terms of PFF pass rating in 2014, he yards-per-attempt was QB34, and QB17 in deep passing accuracy. Now, E.J. Manuel was not better in 2013 (actually he was worse across the board from what Orton posted in 2014) and the outlook should not look rosy from that in-house regard for 2015.
I will point to a couple of things regarding Sammy Watkins and the hand-wringing. First, my research has shown that initial quarterback situation has essentially zero impact on a wide receiver ultimately succeeding or failing in terms of fantasy production. We knew Watkins was walking into a potentially rough initial quarterback situation last May when Buffalo selected him. Nothing has changed. Finally, Watkins is the best receiver Rex Ryan or Greg Roman has coached in their time as an offenseive coordinator or head coach in the NFL. I have a feeling they will know where their bread is buttered in the passing game come Week 1. (Hint: It is not Robert Woods, Chris Hogan, or Marquise Goodwin)
