There will be plenty of content about the 2015 rookie class as well as their valuation against the fantasy veteran assets in the coming months. One thing I added over the past week or so was historical rookie draft pick values to my dynasty model. After analyzing my data in terms of NFL draft position, hit rate, and upside in the early years of their careers, the average value of each draft slot have been added to the mix.
I believe that rookie pick valuation, combined with rookie player selection, is the single most important factor to a dynasty owner’s success or failure amongst their peers. Track a dynasty team’s progression (or lack thereof) when they bank on older players and sell-off a few early rookie picks multiple years in a row. Can they hit on a late-round dart throw or two? Certainly, but the odds are firmly against them. The roster will rot on the vine, an injury or two will derail any present title chances, and the future outlook is bleak. You have certainly seen this type of team before.
More to follow in the coming weeks, but here is a brief overview of the historical values of some rookie pick benchmarks compared to the current crop of veterans:
*These are using the neutral UTH value settings, they will shift when adjusting for a dead-red competing or rebuilding team direction*
1.01 Rookie
Against the current veterans, the generic 1.01 sits at 15 overall. The top-10 or so wide receivers are above its value, as well as Andrew Luck and Rob Gronkowski. I doubt any of those options will be traded for the 1.01 (maybe Andrew Luck in a format that dampens down quarterback scoring), so no surprise here. Players like Alshon Jeffery, Keenan Allen, Aaron Rodgers, and Demaryius Thomas are comparable to the historical 1.01 in the model as a point of comparison.
1.02-1.05 Rookie
These picks are more tightly clustered than most would expect. All four draft picks slot in 23-35 range overall. With the veterans in this range close to half as valuable as the elite assets in the top-5 to top-10 overall, seeing trades of 1.05+1.06 for the 1.01 in an average year is about right value-wise. It also shows the value of collecting future firsts. Even one turning from a playoff team first into a top-5 selection tilts the payoff where you are essentially getting another third-round startup pick infused to your roster.
1.06-1.12 Rookie
The 1.06 sits 10-12 players above the back-half first rounders on the value board. For example, the 1.06 is comparable to Golden Tate, Tre Mason, and Eddie Lacy in that area. The 1.07-1.12 are all clustered in a one-round span (60-70 overall) with the veterans. From my startup experience, that points to rookies in that range being undervalued. When other owners are filling their starting lineup with hum-drum veteran stopgaps, it is time to hit the rookies (or rookie draft slots) hard. With the value tiers becoming far more flat, the rookie picks follow suit. Want Marquess Wilson or Zach Ertz or Bishop Sankey in this range? Paying the 1.08 as opposed to 1.12 or 2.01 is not a substantial difference historically.
Round 2
The late second round was another surprising discovery. Even down to 20-25 overall on the rookie board, they are in the top-125 of startup value. That means from round five through round 10, there should be a ton of rookies (of rookie draft picks) falling off the board. Also, it means when you can dump a low-upside, low-market value veteran asset for a mid-to-late second, long-term that is a quality move. Andre Johnson or Roddy White for a late second? Do it. Vincent Jackson? Larry Fitzgerald? You get the idea. They are tenuous weekly startes already and getting a top-100 NFL drafted running back or wide receiver potentially with that pick is a worthy gamble. While rookies are lottery tickets, the older players listed above are like a car – the value keeps rusting away and looking for the return value in the rearview mirror today or tomorrow, is a losing battle with the dynasty marketplace.
