Friend of Under the Helmet and contributer Mike Beckley is back, talking one of the most polarizing prospects in the 2015 NFL Draft: Dorial Green-Beckham. Follow him on twitter @BeckleyNFL. Also check out Mike’s previous contributions at UTHDynasty, centering around his quarterback-premium focus.
Dorial Green-Beckham recently announced that he would forego the rest of his college eligibility to turn pro. I’ll take this opportunity to provide as many details about this player with rare physical tools, as well as the many off field concerns surrounding him. He projects as high as a first round NFL pick to as low as undrafted. It will only take one NFL team to be willing to take a chance on him as a top 64 pick to make him worth a first round dynasty rookie pick.
On Field
Green-Beckham came to Missouri as the Rivals.com #1 overall high school football prospect and top 3 in the other major high school rankings. In high school he was the state champion in 2010 in the 100 meter dash and triple jump. He later stated that he only practiced the triple jump three times before that! He was also second place in long jump. At 6’6” and 225 pounds, Dorial Green-Beckham is one of the only players with a size and speed profile similar to Calvin Johnson.
As a freshman, he saw the field early and had 28 receptions, 395 yards while leading his team with 5 receiving touchdowns. He missed two games due to his first drug-related offense. As a sophomore, he showed his size and physical dominance scoring 12 TDs. He caught 59 passes for 883 yards in 14 games in his second college season. His game films on draftbreakdown.com are pretty jaw-dropping. He jumps off the screen with his ability to make catches in traffic.
If he runs a sub-4.40 40-time as he has in the past (possibly as fast as 4.35), he is going to make it difficult for NFL general managers to pass on him. Dynasty owners do not have to make a financial commitment to him, but they will need to spend a high pick.
Off Field
Dorial Green later took the last name of John Beckham, his high school coach who adopted him after living in several foster homes. His mother was incarcerated at times and he never knew his father. Once at Missouri, he was arrested with two teammates and suspended due to marijuana possession as a freshman. In January of 2014, he was arrested again when police found one pound of marijuana in the car he in which he was riding. Dorial Green-Beckham was released without charges. He was dismissed from the team in April of 2014. Green-Beckham allegedly forced open an apartment door and pushed a female Missouri student down several stairs. The victim apparently did not cooperate with authorities and he was released again without charges.
On a positive note, he transferred to Oklahoma and sat out the season due to transfer rules. He did not have any off-field problems after April 2014 at Oklahoma. According to coach Bob Stoops, “he had great character through here, did well in his classes, he was the scout team player of the week for half of the weeks and he really worked hard for us.”
Action Plan
My prediction is that an NFL team will take Dorial Green-Beckham in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft. If he shines as a rookie, people will start to forget about his off-field issues, much like they did after Josh Gordon, Jeremy Hill, and Isaiah Crowell blew up. Amari Cooper, Devante Parker, Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon are much safer options in the top-4 of your dynasty league rookie draft. These top wide receivers may not have the same upside as Calvin Johnson and Josh Gordon. Running backs often find themselves in a time share and they are much more likely to get injured. Green-Beckham could outscore all of them as a rookie.
If Dorial Green-Beckham is drafted as high as the second round, I think he should be in play as a top-5 rookie pick. Due to the risk he carries, you may want to sell him for a safer player shortly after he shines in the NFL. There is always a chance that Green-Beckham puts his off-field troubles behind him, but it is not very likely that it will happen in my opinion. He carries a huge risk, so if you are a player likes to play risk-free fantasy football, look elsewhere. If you are an active trader and risk taker, you could be getting a steal on a player that you can sell for much more than you pay to draft Dorial Green-Beckham.
Let’s discuss on twitter @BeckleyNFL.
