This dynasty trade was made in mid-July in a 14-team 0.5ppr superflex league with unique settings. Starting lineups are 1-2-2-1-2Flex-1SFlex-3IDP-1K Some highlights of the scoring include 0.1 points per return yard, big play-big game bonuses as well as boosted passer scoring across the board.
The Approach
The NFL has a shortage of workhorse running backs that dynasty owners can feel confident about long-term productivity. Three main factors to help value running backs are age, talent, and situation. Todd Gurley is the only back that clearly checks all three boxes and the questions quickly start to mount after him. LeVeon Bell has questions surrounding suspensions and injury risks. Ezekiel Elliott appears to have all boxes checked, but there are questions about how his talent translates to the NFL. Lamar Miller looks to be a feature back, but multiple coaching staffs refused to give him a full workload in Miami. Will David Johnson improve his between the tackles running, or will other backs cut into his touches? The questions continue as you go deeper in the running back rankings.
With Carlos Hyde, the questions surround the situation in San Francisco and his injury history. The 2016 upside is unquestionably present with the Chip Kelly offense and lack of a true threat to touches in the offense, but I feel that with the incoming 2017 draft class, San Francisco could look to add depth at the position to cut into Hyde’s value. This being said I was looking to sell Hyde at market value to add depth at the position and additional capital moving forward.
The Trade
Gave Carlos Hyde, 2017 3rd, 2017 4th
Received Duke Johnson, Jerick McKinnon, 2017 2nd, 2017 5th, 2018 1st
Because the running back landscape is so muddled, I was looking for potential breakout talents and rookie picks. Picking up Duke Johnson and Jerick McKinnon accomplished that goal. My main goal was adding draft picks. While I was unable to get a 2017 1st, landing the pick in 2018 is a nice consolation. Since this is an IDP Superflex league, the 2017 2nd will likely provide a solid piece in next year’s class.
My Post Trade Roster
Cam Newton, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson
Todd Gurley, Charles Sims, Duke Johnson, Jerick McKinnon, Jonathan Stewart, Dwayne Washington
Mike Evans, Brandin Cooks, Keenan Allen, Kevin White, Jordan Matthews, Donte Moncrief, Sammie Coates, Davante Adams, Josh Gordon
Zach Ertz, Eric Ebron, Jimmy Graham, Maxx Williams, Vance McDonald
Luke Kuechly, Ryan Shazier, Malcolm Brown, Derron Lee
2017 1,2,2,2,3,4,5,5
2018 1,1,2,3,4,5
Takeaways
The running back landscape in the NFL will look drastically different this time next offseason. Currently Eddie Lacy, Le’Veon Bell, and Latavius Murray headline a deep free agent class. It can be argued that only two backfields (St. Louis and Dallas) are “safe” from adding a large piece to decrease the starter’s value in 2017 either through free agency or through the draft. Take a look at your roster. If you feel that you are not a contender, sell your top running backs mid-season. As a contender, look at cheaper starting options like Jonathan Stewart or Ryan Mathews to get the weekly points needed for a run, and cash out on the more highly valued running backs.
