Welcome to the first of many (hopefully) Fantasy Football Portfolio articles where I will be going into depth on how the parallel’s between dynasty football and real life investing tie together. No, I wont be able to make you a “real life millionaire”, however I am confident that my use of real life investing scenarios will help to re-wire your dynasty football perspectives. I’ll take an otherwise drab and nauseating topic, add some energy/humor to it and turn this series into a total gem. The real key to these articles will be my focus on helping dynasty players maximize what they have, and at the same time help them lower the regrettable roster destruction they do each year as well. We will laugh together, we will cry together, and over time I believe we will become BFFFF’s — forever.
Let Us Begin
If you follow me on Twitter then you probably realize by now that many times I speak about dynasty moves in terms of financial investments, because in so many paralleling ways they actually are. Perhaps this approach to how I view the game is a little *too* fitting considering my twitter handle @AnOutragedJew and real life denomination but I was always told to “shake what my momma gave me” so here I am.
In this first article I wanted to touch on a topic that recently came up during a twitter conversation with another dynasty player. He tweeted out that he was trading Michael Floyd of the Arizona Cardinals for the 2.06 in a 12 league that also incorporated IDP (Individual Defensive Players). Now even though I respect every player’s approach to the game, that does not mean that I don’t cringe at the thought of a guy “low-balling himself”. My evaluation which is based on much more than just on-field history of Michael Floyd says he is worth much more than a 2.06 draft pick. However this topic goes deeper than a player’s face value though, this guy made a cardinal financial mistake as the conversation continued and it is important to point out (Cardinal pun intended).
I have played fantasy football every year since 1992. I will draft talents like Michael Floyd aggressively every time, every year.
— Jim McCormick (@JMcCormickESPN) November 6, 2014
Devaluation By Positional Overflow
What the heck does that mean? Well I will tell ya. What it means is that you are so heavy in one position on your roster that you begin to devalue players at the bottom half of it during the trade process. When I responded back to our owner at hand and told him that I felt like he sold too cheap on Floyd here was his response back to me.
“He’s my WR5 so I took a gamble and hopefully I get an IDP stud there”.
Classic mistake by someone who was probably in a hurry to make a move before the draft and to do so took a pretty big value hit to Michael Floyd. I told the owner (based on my evaluation of Floyd and this draft class) that I didn’t think I could have sold Floyd for less than the 1.08. For those of you ready to call me a crazy, just remember the bust rate of NFL prospects is a lot higher than our emotional attachments would lead us to believe. So why did I say, “not less than the 1.08” even though some sellers may feel like this price tag is too steep? I did it because I live and die by my next quote…
When it comes to “player equity” I will almost never trade or cut a player for anything less than an instantaneous “push” on value.
This means that when I am holding the premier chip (in this case its Michael Floyd vs the 2.06) I will almost never part ways with it for a piece that is not equal to or greater than what I am giving up. Just because “Player X” is my 5th best wide receiver and I have the most willingness to deal him of any of the others does not mean that I will give you any sort of discount based on his position on MY depth chart. Making moves like these are great way to squander the equity you’ve netted over time. You’ve spent years drafting well, trading well, and playing the waiver wire well — so why throw it all away for less than WHAT YOU DESERVE? A push to me here would have been the 2.06 + more or a straight up first round pick. Sure, perhaps the 2.06 turns into Vic Beasley or Randy Gregory — both talented athletes with productive college backgrounds. This is where we have to “guesstimate” how our 2.06 will translate to an NFL field vs Michael Floyd.
What We “Expect” vs. What We “Know”
What We Know About Michael Floyd
Michael Floyd is not a bust by any means — he is a 25-year-old wide receiver with all the talent in the world that has yet to become the “offensive focal point”. He spent his first 2 seasons behind Larry Fitzgerald and just last year had to deal with a god awful cast of quarterbacks after Palmer went down. Despite his relatively low career receiving percentage average (56.1%), there is not much about Floyd that I do not like, especially if there is any chance this offense gets the rumored upgrades it is looking at. I am far from dropping Michael Floyd into the Cordarrelle Patterson class of expectation because they are two very different players with two very different levels of NFL caliber abilities. I don’t think any of us would be surprised if Michael Floyd finished the 2015 season with 85 catches, for 1,400+ receiving yards and 8-10 touchdowns would we? I know I would not be because I realize that the potential to do so is very much there. So with this mind-set as our default point of view would you still be willing to give him up for the 2.06? I know I would not, but that is because I have viewed this trade this very way from the beginning.
What We Expect At 2.06
If his intention is actually to go after a defensive player and not make an offensive selection than I guess league format and scoring would be pretty important to know — I unfortunately do not have any of it. The real difficulty with the evaluation process is that many times it ends up blowing up in our face, especially when we are picking later in our leagues draft. The difference between the immediate impact caliber of players you can select from 1.01-1.06 is significantly higher than those waiting for you between 2.02-2.06. Now people in leagues that offer IDP do have a better chance of stealing an available high-end talent later because the leagues rookie pool is saturated by an additional quantity of defensive players. This does not change the difficulty in evaluating talent and making the right pick though. This becomes the primary reason I would prefer that 1.08 range because it puts me into an entirely different class of options, making MY CHANCES of busting on a choice much lower than drafting a round or more later.
Can anyone explain why the Cardinals aren’t interested in retaining Michael Floyd? Led NFC West WRs in TD receptions, even in a down yr.
— RamsHerd (@RamsHerd) April 23, 2015
Final Thought
It does not make you a dirty league player to ask for more than you probably deserve when attempting to move a piece. I would not show up to the car dealership, take a look at the sticker price on a new vehicle and then just write a check on the spot without some negotiation. Paying full price is for suckers and letting assets go for less than face value can be too. This game may be for fun but at the same time I am here to win and load my roster with a bunch of pieces that guys in my league are forced to approach me for. Everybody wants more for less, so it is not in our nature or even beneficial for us to cut deals to people just to “make a move”. If you are going to sell, for god sakes sell high. Michael Floyd will probably never be worth less than the time you tried to sell him while: Arizona was publicly wishy-washy on picking up his 5th year option, John Brown’s hype was buzzing again and NFL rookie draft picks were at their absolute PEAK VALUE. This is a definite recipe for getting taken by your league-mates in the trade market.
Look at dynasty football the same way you would your real life and don’t act in haste. Timing is everything here and throwing away really solid assets like Michael Floyd can be a very dangerous practice. Learn to be firm with your price tag evaluations and don’t waiver on them for any sort of circumstances. The owner I am writing about is a smart player but this to me is a pretty classic case of moving too fast and not fully recognizing the moving parts involved. Sure its just one move, but over the course of 3-4 years these moves end up being the difference between having and not having “noteworthy equity” on your roster. Don’t be the guy on-board the sinking ship, be the guy on the deck of the one next to it sipping a drink with an umbrella in it while he watches the other one sink.
Go get your future.
