As Chad and I continue with player spotlights, a common question has been how the player projects to the NFL. The wide receiver position, in particular, is important to find projectable ability and skills when evaluating NFL future.
Chad recently talked about souring on the boom-bust metric profile in his evaluations. Recent years have provided an additional cautionary prospect profile. Specifically, there have been a number of older receivers in recent years who have vaulted up to the beginning of Round 1 in rookie drafts. The older receiver limited both in alignment and route tree, who was successful on an athletic profile. This has been attractive in rookie drafts, yet leaves owners exposed to unappreciated risk, with a capped upside.
Recent years have provided an additional cautionary prospect profile: old receivers who have size and athleticism metrics, but limited route tree and positional alignments. Attractive because of size and athleticism, the limited skills they use to produce are overlooked. Early first round rookie pick investment leaves the owners exposed to unappreciated risk and questionable upside.
A Dangerous Profile
Two recent examples of this profile are Kevin White and Josh Doctson. Both receivers were attractive from a size, athleticism and production perspective upon entering the NFL. This overshadowed glaring holes in how they would translate to the NFL.
What was under appreciated at the time was the risk of White and Doctson’s profile. White was drafted as a redshirt senior and entered the NFL at 23 years old. While at West Virginia, he almost exclusively lined up split to the right side of the field and ran a limited perimeter route tree. During his rookie season, he suffered a knee injury and missed the season. Then during his sophomore campaign, White’s role was being questioned by the coaching staff because of limited route capabilities. He then suffered a high ankle sprain which landed him on IR. Through his first two seasons, White has played five games. White has not returned the value of his top-4 rookie pick cost in 2015 rookie drafts. He will enter his third season in the NFL at 25 years old with major questions about his market valuations.
Doctson similarly came into Redskins training camp as a high pick with good athletic metrics. He entered the NFL at 23 year old. During training camp, he discussed his steep learning curve, particularly how he needed to adjust to deep in breaking routes and double moves within the playbook. After some preseason buzz, Doctson suffered an Achilles injury. His rookie season ended with a trip to IR after two catches and two games.
UTH has been particularly high on White and Doctson. I for one, have a substantial market share of White and Doctson.
Over-Priced Risk
White and Doctson represented an over-priced risk at the time of their rookie drafts. The limited scope of their productivity was overshadowed by their size and athleticism. At advanced ages of 23 as rookies, transitioning to NFL offenses required a seamless transition. For Doctson and White to return on their cost, they needed nearly flawless mental and physical development. Injuries or a coach who grew frustrated with their development were huge risks to their value.
In short, investments in White and Doctson with top-4 picks of rookie drafts did not recognize the risk inherent in their profile. That investment presumed 23-year-old receivers would make significant developments in route running they had never shown, or that they could function as productive dynasty assets with limited route running abilities. The risk presumed either they would overcome their limitations or succeed in spite of them. This concern is heightened when receivers are 23 years old because they do not have a long period of time to develop the ability to return value. This creates further risk because any injury can stunt their development and substantially stunt their dynasty stock.
Action Plan
In the evaluation process for the 2017 rookie draft, White and Doctson’s stories provide a cautionary tale. Significant growth from players at an advanced age is unlikely. Avoid assuming such growth from players, and you will limit substantial downside in your investments. While early in the 2017 class, players like Amba Etta-Tawo fit a similar profile of White and Doctson, and warrant caution in pricing. Instead, look towards players like Corey Davis who have a more diverse skill set and mature understanding of their positions.
