Let me first introduce the premise of the column. I wanted to take a look at trades I have made in dynasty leagues over the years and how they have turned out. Almost like the same way we used to always see the Herschel Walker trade the Dallas Cowboys made in which all of the players they acquired from the deal would be put on the screen. The league I am referencing is a 16-team league started in 2012, so we have plenty of data from which to pull.
In my first Art of the Deal, I look at Jerick McKinnon who has seen his ADP climb from the 250 range in July 2014 all the way up to 30 in July 2018 according to DLF. The question is, based on what I have invested in McKinnon and my current team needs, do I cash in on him or do I keep him?
Let’s start with how I obtained McKinnon and my current running back roster. This is a PPR league and we only have to start one running back.
On August 17, 2016, I gave up Doug Martin (pick 23 in 2012 – startup, ADP 42) and Matt Jones (pick 30 in 2015 rookie draft, ADP 84) for Lamar Miller (ADP 23) and Jerick McKinnon (ADP 110). On paper, it looked like a straight up deal. But when projecting future value, I saw Martin and Jones as depreciating assets with Miller a cornerstone and McKinnon a future lottery ticket. Needless to say, Jones ADP plummeted to 240 by February 2017 and Martin declined to 130.
I was high on Miller, who had just signed with the Houston Texans. Also, dumping Matt Jones was critical because I could see he was a sell high. The same with Martin. The original offer was Miller for Martin/Jones, but when I looked at the owners’ roster, I saw McKinnon just sitting there and figured let me add him to the deal to see what happens. Well, he accepted, and I got the ROI on Miller already, but now is where the real profit takes place. What do I do with McKinnon? I also must be concerned about Miller’s longevity as he might see his value crater after 2018 if D’onta Foreman is handing the starting job and Miller is on a new team.
I still have Lamar Miller who looks like a great asset coming into 2018, along with McKinnon.
Here is my running back roster.
Starters
- Miller, Lamar HOU
- McKinnon, Jerick SFO
Key Depth Pieces
- Bernard, Giovani CIN
- Barber, Peyton TBB
- McGuire, Elijah NYJ
Potential Cuts
- Davis, Mike SEA
- Dayes, Matthew CLE
- Hood, Elijah CAR
- Kelley, Rob WAS
Taxi Squad (5 rookies)
- Adams, Josh PHI (R)
- Edmonds, Chase ARI (R)
- Nall, Ryan CHI (R)
- Scarbrough, Bo DAL (R)
I have 2 solid starters, 3 nice depth pieces, and 4 rookies on my taxi squad. But I have a glaring need for a top running back. The potential cuts I have tried to move and just get back future rookie draft picks with no luck. Out of the group, I’m still inclined to keep Hood because he is right behind C.J. Anderson who has shown to be brittle.
If I deal McKinnon it has to be for an upgrade at running back which means I buy a veteran or I package McKinnon with a wide receiver and get a better running back. I’m leaning towards the latter, but so far, I have not been able to execute a deal. There are a few teams carrying 4-5 top running backs, so I think by the time the season rolls around I will be able to get my bell cow. My ideal targets are Derrius Guice, Melvin Gordon, and perhaps Dalvin Cook. The fall back is I still have a potential RB1 in 2018 with McKinnon and a bridge player in Miller. I DO NOT have to make a deal but exploring something would be advantageous to keep this team a contender for years to come. Do I feel comfortable with McKinnon as an RB1? NO. Which is why I am looking to make a deal before the start of the season.
So who is the 2018 version of Jerick McKinnon. I do not see anyone who fits the exact profile but Matt Breida and James Conner are two players where their ADP is still in the 150-200 range. If everything were to break right for the player in that they inherit a starting role via free agency or injury, the sky is the limit. Again, we are not looking to project future performance, but future ADP and trade value.
