I can tell already that T.J. Yeldon will be a polarizing running back prospect in the 2015 NFL Draft class. At face value, Yeldon is a well-rounded prospect by the metrics and from a powerhouse program in Alabama. I poked around some very early rookie drafts and Yeldon is a top-10 pick by the consensus and occasionally in the top-5.

Yeldon is on the taller side for a running back, projected to be 6’1” – we will see with the official measurements coming in the pre-draft process. One good thing with that height is Yeldon is highly likely to come in at least 215 pounds, if not a rocked up 220+ in a month or so. Raw weight is a positive indicator for running backs historically, so his height is minimized as Yeldon will be average or better weight entering the NFL.

Another positive trait for T.J. Yeldon is his age. At 21.9 years old for Week 1 in 2015, Yeldon’s age score is 74 in the model (1-100 scale). While it may seem insignificant at first glance, every month and year to a prospect’s age counts. In fact, age is one of the stronger predictor’s in the model overall, regardless of position. A prospect’s production is weighted by age, but age in and of itself is also a weighted portion of their overall score. Excel at an early age compared to their peers in college, then advance to the next level earlier than said peers.

In terms of production, Yeldon is again above-average across the board and well-rounded. At +28% rushing and +16% receiving, Yeldon can be projected as a three-down option in the NFL and has the size to be viewed that way by coaching staffs as well.

Looking at T.J. Yeldon’s production as the basis for his comparisons, here are a few names:

  • Rashad Jennings
  • Jamaal Charles
  • DeShaun Foster
  • Jamal Lewis

The first observation is that three of them were top-75 NFL draft picks (always a good sign) and the remaining one, Rashad Jennings, was one of the better late-round running backs in the projection model of the past 15 years. Of these names, Jennings and Lewis are beefier than Yeldon physically with Jamaal Charles coming in far lighter. In the Goldilocks and Three Bears story, that makes DeShaun Foster just right. Yeldon is projected to be a better athlete than Foster at this point in the model, so consider Yeldon an upgraded version of the former Carolina back that hit 14 PPR PPG in his third NFL season and started 42 games according to ProFootballReference.com in his career.

Using Yeldon’s projected physical traits and a wider scope for his production marks, here are a few more pre-combine comparisons for the Alabama running back:

A much better version of J.R. Redmond. Yeldon has some physical similarities, but is a much better runner than the former Arizona State back drafted 76 overall in 2000.

Thomas Jones. Yeldon will likely finish the draft process as a better version of Jones and already has him beat in rushing, receiving, and enters the NFL at a younger age.

Willis McGahee and Marshawn Lynch. Both McGahee and Lynch entered the NFL at less than 22 years old and Yeldon likely splits the difference athletically between them as prospects. All three were well-rounded producers in college, Yeldon likely a poor man’s version of them in the passing game.

Knowshon Moreno. Yeldon is a better pure runner (thank goodness), but Moreno dwarfs him in the model in the passing game. Yeldon is likely to be a much better athlete post-combine as well. Moreno was the No.12 overall pick by the NFL and has 155 VBD in his career to-date.

Isaiah Crowell. Yeldon may not check in at a rocked up 224 pounds like Crowell did pre-draft, but that would be his upside. Crowell has a better rushing score in the model, but Yeldon is a couple tiers ahead as a receiver. Both were 21.7-21.9 years old for the opening of their rookie season.

Overall, that is a strong list of comparable players with an update coming after Yeldon confirms and adds to his measurements and drills in the next few months. Yeldon’s overall score of 74 currently is higher than any of the 2014 running backs and on par with LeVeon Bell and Marcus Lattimore (does not factor in injury), the top running backs in the 2013 class by the numbers. At this early stage, I like Yeldon quite a bit in the mid-first round.

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