Since his entry into the league in 2014 the fantasy opinions about Charles Sims have been all over the map. In fact you’d be hard pressed to find a running back who’s stock has seen more of a phantom rise and fall than his has. After being selected in the third round of the 2014 draft by Tampa Bay it seemed as if the sky was the limit for Sims. Fantasy experts and general players alike bought into what some are referring to as a “narrative” — Doug Martin was old news and Lovie Smith just found his reincarnate of Matt Forte. So is this really just narrative or should we be taking advantage of those who view it that way?
One Man’s Trash
I’ve got to be honest with you — I am a buy-low kind of guy. I garage sale, grocery shop with coupons, haggle at my local car dealerships and absolutely never, under any circumstances pay sticker price for anything. So the idea that anyone out there that actually writes off a 2nd year running back based on phantom accounts is comical and extremely misguided.
After 2 straight years of zero 1st round running back selections the Tampa Buccaneers took a shot on feature back sized, borderline elite level pass catcher out of West Virginia University. As much as I like Doug Martin I do not buy into the narrative that “Sims is Lovie’s guy” as much as I do that Doug Martin just is not. Since his breakout season in 2012 Martin has struggled to find his groove as a runner and even more importantly than that he lost his ability to stay healthy. So to hear someone call Sims “Lovie’s guy” purely because Lovie drafted him or he looks/plays like Matt Forte is not 100% correct — because Doug deserves some credit here too.
Tampa Bay coaches ‘very high’ on Charles Sims http://t.co/8tozQ61uaN
— rotoworld (@rotoworld) May 23, 2015
A Path Paved in Gold
Regardless of how this battle ends, It is fair to say that any lead back in Tampa Bay may be one worth coveting. For starters the Tampa offensive line graded out by Pro Football Focus as the #8 overall running blocking team in the NFL in 2014. This grade is obviously prior to the 2015 NFL draft additions of two highly regarded offensive lineman: OT Donovan Smith (Penn St.) and C Ali Marpet (Hobart). Now swap out Mike Glennon for the significantly upgraded talent that Jameis Winston is, sprinkle in a smidge of Kenny Bell at WR3 and you can see why Tampa Bay is starting to look like a premier location for a player to be successful.
This is an offense that won’t allow defenses to load the box with the outside abilities of Mike Evans, Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Vincent Jackson. This trio alone should give the bi-weekly projected starter Charles Sims more room to work than ever before.
The Social Media Hype Train
What was truly the expectation of Sims in 2014? He broke his ankle early in the year, had a surgery, missed half of the NFL regular season and “experts” were disappointed that he couldn’t put it together year one. Is anyone surprised by that though? On his 66 total NFL carries (Shonn Greene had more than that) he averaged a pedestrian 2.8 YPC. We get it, he wasn’t as impressive after missing 8 weeks of the regular season, rehabbing and running with Mike Glennon at quarterback all while being an NFL rookie. I’ve seen it all though, from fantasy players calling him “overrated” all the way to comments about his “lack of vision” or “non-existent tackle breaking ability”. Perhaps a justified statement, as Sims did average a sub par 1.4 yards after contact per attempt in 2014 which was good for 119th overall in the NFL. Although despite his few underwhelming advanced statistics I am far from writing Charles Sims off after just his second year in the league
@AnOutragedJew who on earth doesn’t love the big/fast back with elite receiving skills and a path to significant carries?
— LateRoundEverything (@Fantasy_Mansion) May 23, 2015
Exactly.
Bottom Line on Charles Sims
In just 8 starts (again after missing half the year due to injury) Sims still posted 19 receptions on just 24 targets — that is a receiving percentage of 79.2%. Charles Sims also averaged 9.9 yards per catch which put him in a direct tie with Marshawn Lynch for the 6th highest YPC in the entire NFL 2014. Just for giggles I extrapolated his 8 game receiving statistics over a 16 game season and calculated what could have been: 38 catches, and 376 yards receiving. That would have tied him for 17th in overall receptions at running back and put him 11th overall in receiving yards. I am a believer of Charles Sims not only because of his top 10 pass catching abilities, but also because I believe one season removed from injury, with more time to study the offense and behind an improved offensive line will turn his numbers around.
Unfortunately Rotorworld has a bad habit of building up and then demolishing players value, and Sims has been no exception to this process. So my advice for those looking to buy Sims would be to throw his 2014 rushing statistics at the potential owner and let those do the dirty work for you. It is hard to ignore how average they truly were, but again my estimation of them is that they were truly circumstantial and not a reflection of Sims on field abilities. For owners looking to sell I would point out his receiving skills, and of course the narrative of a Matt Forte clone that is “Lovie’s guy”, and the colossal decline of a one Doug Martin.
Please send all your Charles Sims hate mail to me on twitter.
Happy Hunting, friends.
