This post is from Mike Beckley, long-time friend of Under the Helmet and contributor in the past here on the site. Follow him on twitter @BeckleyNFL.
There will be a new head coach in 2015 for the San Francisco 49ers, New York Jets, Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, Atlanta Falcons, and the Oakland Raiders. As I’ve mentioned before, a head coach’s job is very dependent on the play of his starting quarterback. The quarterback’s leash will be shorter than they were with their previous coaches. I only currently play in Superflex (start up to 2 quarterbacks) leagues, so I spend a lot of time focused on the quarterback position and every situation is important. This article will break down each of the team’s situation and how the new head coach could affect each quarterback and their value in dynasty football leagues.
San Francisco 49ers
Colin Kaepernick is coming off of a rather poor season where he was QB21 in points per game (PPG) and QB16 overall. This makes him borderline waiver wire fodder in start one quarterback leagues and a pretty unreliable QB2 in Superflex leagues. Kaepernick had 20 total TDs and 15 turnovers (10 ints, 5 fumbles) in 2014. His career high 639 rushing yards were all that kept him serviceable in fantasy. The new coach may not be looking for a quarterback who rushes the ball over 100 times in a season. Kaepernick has the rushing ability to give top-5 upside if he can put it all together, but the new coach may not be willing to wait for that. The team also could be losing free agents Michael Crabtree, Frank Gore. Vernon Davis would be severely overpaid if they kept him in 2015. Kaepernick was QB21 in PPG in 2014 and his situation could be even worse in 2015. Buyer Beware.
Oakland Raiders
I have written about Derek Carr before and it is not at all his on-field play that is concerning for me. It is that his situation is absolutely terrible in my opinion. He has a weak offensive line, a poor rushing attack, a bad defense and no weapons that I’m excited about. The Raiders have pick 4, so Amari Cooper could be in play. However, the Raiders do not look like a team to be optimistic about. Reggie McKenzie could be out after several questionable free agency decisions. Personnel control would be one of the things that Mark Davis needs to give in order to get the best candidate for the job. Derek Carr looks like what I would hope for a rookie, but still was only QB28 in PPG and QB20 overall. His 21 passing touchdowns are a nice starting point though as a rookie on a bad team. He’s not worth much at all in start one quarterback leagues and I wouldn’t feel confident starting him in Superflex leagues. My biggest concern is what happens if the new coaches start out with a record of 2-10? Carr would be 5-23 as a starter and could be the fall guy for their lack of success. At what point is Carr’s job going to be unsafe when the team is not winning with a new coach. He could be someone you may want to acquire for a rookie pick after the top two quarterbacks are off the board, but I would have tempered expectations if you are penciling Carr into your long-term lineup.
Chicago Bears
The Bears situation with Jay Cutler is a very interesting one to monitor. There have been rumors about them trying to trade him but few teams are going to want to pay him. The Bears have one of the best groups of weapons in Jeffery, Marshall, Bennett and Forte. Jay Cutler has an albatross of a contract (7 years, 126 million) and will be incredibly hard to trade without sweetening the pot. Cutler was QB12 overall and QB11 in PPR in 2014, so he is still serviceable in one and two quarterback leagues. He could be on a different team in 2015 and he could also be on his last year in Chicago. If you have him, you probably won’t get much in value right now with the trade rumors, so I would wait before selling him. If you are looking to buy him, be careful giving up too much.
New York Jets
The new coach and general manager are not going to want their jobs tied to former second round pick Geno Smith. Before week 17, he was one of the worst quarterbacks in the league and was benched for Michael Vick. The Jets pick 6th overall so Jameis Winston could be in play if he declares for the NFL draft. Winston comes with a lot of questionable off-field decisions, so the new coach and general manager would have to be pretty comfortable with his interviews and coach recommendations. The team could keep or release Percy Harvin and has Eric Decker and Jace Amaro as decent weapons. If the Jets bring in a 1st round rookie, he will have a long leash as the new regime’s guy. If you have Geno Smith, I’d be comfortable trading him away for the even slightest pick upgrade.
Atlanta Falcons
Matt Ryan is one of the better quarterbacks in the league, so I don’t expect his job to be in jeopardy for a long time. He is one of the reasons the Atlanta job is an enticing one for head coach candidates. I don’t feel like a new coach changes Matt Ryan’s dynasty value, but a new offensive coordinator could hurt some. The offense, if healthy, should continue to put up points. Ryan was QB9 in PPG and QB9 overall. He should continue to rank around there and maybe higher if his offensive line or rushing game improves.
Buffalo Bills
The new coaches of the Bills will inherit former first round pick EJ Manuel and that’s all. They do not have a first round pick thanks to the Sammy Watkins trade. They could look for one in the second round, trade into the late first, or be players in the weak free agency market. Any quarterback the new coaching staff drafts or signs as a free agent is worth owning in Superflex leagues. However, the team could be losing Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller. They also don’t have a good tight end and their wide receivers after Watkins only average. This is a situation to monitor, but I’d sell EJ Manuel in Superflex leagues to anyone who was interested for a small pick upgrade.
