I came out much earlier in the college season firmly against Melvin Gordon as a future fantasy football star. The projection model plainly did not like Gordon overall. Here is an update on the Wisconsin running back pre-combine:
Two things standout for Melvin Gordon in his production profile: His 185 rushing yards per game at age 21 is pretty darn good.
Prior to 2015, only three running backs hit at least 180 rushing yards per game at the same age: Bernard Scott, Danny Woodhead, and LaDainian Tomlinson. In short, pretty good company. All three did dwarf Gordon’s age 20 season and Woodhead and Tomlinson (no data on Scott at age 19) performed far better at age 19 as well. Another unique part of Gordon’s college production is his 7.8 career yards-per-carry. The list of backs since 1999 in the 7.5-8.0 range is another short one:
- De’Anthony Thomas
- Lache Seastrunk
- Felix Jones
- Ramonce Taylor
Jones and Seastrunk are better comparable prospects than Thomas and Taylor by their weight, athleticism score, and projected role in the NFL.
The elephant in the room with Melvin Gordon has been, and remains, his receiving production or lack thereof. Gordon’s +46% rushing score is one of the better marks of the major conference prospects for 2015. His -52% receiving score, however, is one of the worst. Now, his 64 overall projection score can be viewed as ‘hey, Gordon grades so low in receiving and look how high he still is in the model!’ That is true. Gordon, especially with a strong combine can look like a prospect too talented as a pure runner to give much thought to his lagging receiving marks in his college career.
Is It a Wisconsin Thing?
I looked at the career progression of former Wisconsin backs like James White, Montee Ball, and Brian Calhoun in the model. All of them were better at every age in the passing game than Melvin Gordon. Now, at age 19, Gordon had Ball AND White in front of him on the depth chart. At age 20, Ball was gone. In that season James White averaged 23 receiving yards per game, while Gordon was invisible. Wouldn’t Gordon’s use have risen as a result? Fast-forward to Gordon being ‘the guy’ in 2014 and he hit a career-high 11 receiving yards per game – pretty poor at his age and depth chart position.
Historical Look
One quick way to compare a running back’s production split is with a rushing/receiving +/- metric that merely combines a back’s rushing and receiving over baseline into a single number in the model. It is quick and dirty, but is perfect for a back with such a divide in their scores like Melvin Gordon. His +/- is -98%, the 9th highest mark since 1999. Sifting the list by backs that are at least -30% in receiving and -75% in the +/-, the results are a list of boom-bust outcomes:
- Adrian Peterson
- Ladainian Tomlinson
You may have heard of them. Both were top-10 NFL draft picks and churned out at least 750 career VBD according to ProFootballReference.com. Both had lofty projection model scores of at least 80 with dreamy athleticism marks of at least +40%. They are the gold standard in every aspect other than receiving usage and production in college.
The rest of the group is filled with names like Chris ‘Beanie’ Wells, Laurence Maroney, Travis Henry, and Ron Dayne types. Bernard Pierce, Terrance Cobb, Terrance West, and Jerick McKinnon are also listed. Melvin Gordon is the only 2015 major conference running back prospect in the model on the list.
The average projection score of the 2014 and prior backs on the list? 70. Melvin Gordon sits at 64 prior to the combine. I do not put Gordon in the Tomlinson and Peterson tier as a prospect. That leaves a good-sized gap to the rest of the prospects, but not a super rosy fantasy outlook. As another point of comparison, Gordon’s pre-combine score of 64 would rank RB5 among the 2014 class that were top-100 picks and RB4 using the same criteria among the 2013 class. First round NFL running backs have averaged a projection model score of 72 over the past 15 years. Outside of having one of the greatest combine performances ever at the position, Gordon will not even get to that average mark for his final score during the draft process.
Melvin Gordon will be one of my first video breakdowns at the running back position here at UTHDynasty.com during the draft process.
