With Brandon Marshall out for the rest of the season, Marquess Wilson is the next man up in Chicago. Wilson was already seeing a significant snap count with 76, 49, 75, and 89% of the snaps since returning to the active roster. The Bears offense feeds few targets in the passing game. Four players (Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Martellus Bennett, and Matt Forte) have at least 100 targets through 13 games, while no other player has more than 16 looks for the season. The opportunity is there for Wilson to at least six targets a game and even flirt with double-digits.
Marquess Wilson: The Player
Without a solid NFL body of work, I default to the pre-draft process for young players. Here is the need-to-know information about Marquess Wilson from the projection model:
Athletically, Wilson is above-average. While he is on the thin side (25.9 BMI) and still appears so from watching him in Week 13, he burst and agility are excellent. A 1.51 10-yard split, even for his 207-pound frame is in the top-15% of receiver prospects dating back to 1999. His unreal 6.65 three-cone time is well inside the top-10% in that timeframe. Overall, Wilson has an athleticism score of 64. Here are the closest comparables for Wilson athletically:
- A.J. Green
- Terrance Toliver
- Dominique Edison
- Courtney Taylor
- Dallas Baker
- Reggie Brown
- Rashaun Woods
- P.K. Sam Jason McAddley
- Muneer Moore
Reggie Brown had modest success, but this list is essentially A.J. Green and a bunch of washouts for fantasy. The main roadblock between this list and a much better one is Wilson’s thin frame. Add 10-15 pounds and receivers like Eric Decker, Mike Williams, and Jordy Nelson enter the conversation.
Wilson’s college production is the strength of his profile. Marquess Wilson’s impressive 18-year-old season is one of the best in the database. He followed it up with an even-better weighted market-share season as a 19-year-old. Using those two seasons, Keenan Allen, Michael Floyd, T.Y. Hilton, Randall Cobb, Hakeem Nicks, Kenny Britt, and DeSean Jackson are some of the recent fantasy successes that parallel Marquess Wilson’s strong collegiate start.
Another aspect of Wilson’s college production that is worth noting is his high career yards-per-catch. At 17.0, he ranks in the top-20% overall and only Kenny Britt of the above list surpasses that lofty mark.
Overall, Wilson has a production score of 97, matching that of Hakeem Nicks and Kenny Britt – tops of that 18 and 19-year-old phenom list.
When combining all of Wilson’s projection model data, his score is a lofty 89 – the highest of the 2013 wide receiver class and equaling Donte Moncrief’s mark in the 2014 class. The lowest odds of turning into a fantasy starter reside with round five or later wide receivers, hovering around 5% since 1999. However, the odds rise substantially with a strong projection model score. When filtering for scores of 80 or greater, the list dwindles to just seven names, including Marquess Wilson. Here are the late-round metric marvels:
- Jeff Janis
- Albert Wilson
- Jordan Harris
- Marquess Wilson
- DeAndre Brown
- Pierre Garcon
- Miles Austin
Garcon and Austin mark huge successes. Albert Wilson has found early playing time with the Chiefs this season as a rookie. Jeff Janis is simmering behind the scenes a la Charles Johnson in Green Bay. Jordan Harris and DeAndre Brown both washed out rather quickly.
According to the latest update to my dynasty values model, Wilson is worth, historically, a rookie pick in the 2.01-2.03 range. He can move up into the late first range with a strong finish to the season. If he goes the way to Rueben Randle and squanders a strong volume of targets, he likely moves to the late second round or a #PackageUp player in the offseason.
