The quarterback position is the most unique one in dynasty fantasy football. On one hand quarterbacks have the long careers that dynasty owners crave. On the other hand, serviceable starters are dirt cheap in start-1QB formats with many leagues having at least a spot starter or two on the waiver wire. Quarterbacks have more roster value than market value, giving the position ultimate flexibility.
Going All-In
Going with an Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, or Russell Wilson in the early rounds of a startup draft is a worthy strategy. While Rodgers is far older than the other three, he arguably is the best we have ever seen at the position. Even projecting another 4-5 high-level seasons from Rodgers seems relatively safe. Quarterbacks are incredibly consistent year-to-year, giving owners the security to focus on other positions. However, often I see owners of these cornerstone signal-callers stockpiling secondary talent at the position. One of the major perks of having a stud quarterback is that he will be a starter week-in and week-out. There will not be matchup-based sit-start decisions. With that owner mindset, excess at the position is very wasteful. When the primary backup develops, say Ryan Tannehill for example, the immediate reaction should be one of two things: Selling the stud quarterback to stockpile talent at other positions or rookie picks, or pedaling the up-and-comer for rookie picks. Saving a roster spot or two, especially in more shallow leagues (say less than 25 roster spots) is an added bonus of rostering only one or two quarterbacks. Like a redraft league, the waiver wire can be an owner’s backup quarterback.
None of the Above
The late-round quarterback movement is certainly viable in dynasty. Last year for example, I shrugged at the position in a deep dynasty startup through 15 rounds and still ended up with a collection of Ryan Tannehill, Philip Rivers, and Teddy Bridgewater over the next five rounds. I was committing, at least at the outset of the league, to manage a revolving door with a high-floor option (Rivers) with two shots at upside (Tannehill-Bridgewater). A few late options that fit the mold in 2015 include Eli Manning, Derek Carr, Blake Bortles, and yet again Philip Rivers. Even without a top quarterback, a well-crafted committee can pace most of the studs over the course of a season playing the matchups. Plus, there is no allegiance to any particular player. Scrub the matchups and roll with the best choice.
One perk of this ‘none of the above’ strategy is navigating the startup draft. There is bound to be a quarterback or two, especially outside the first 10-12 selected, that screams value in the later rounds. An owner that pays up for a top option earlier is in a no-win situation. If the Andrew Luck owner attempts to correct the decision by the owners waiting on those dropping talents by grabbing a second quarterback early, they lose. Now, an owner has invested two premium picks (yes, even a top-120 pick is a premium asset when initially building a dynasty team) in a singular starting position. What is the value lost by the other owner? Not much as they will continue to wait and stockpile talent at other positions. Now, the Andrew Luck owner has a sunken cost in their backup and good luck getting it back in the tough quarterback trading market once the league gets rolling. The flexibility in a startup is intoxicating when waiting on quarterback, knowing that there will be perfectly serviceable options well into the double-digit rounds. Hit big on a quarterback using this strategy? That is the ultimate windfall as the owner can transition to roster management from the ‘Going All-In’ section, but without the sticker shock of initial acquisition. An example I have is a 2011 startup draft where I seemingly missed out on quarterbacks all along the way. Teams drafted their backups and all in all 17 quarterbacks were off the board prior to snagging my starter, some rookie named Cam Newton. Flexibility at quarterback allows an owner to flow where the matchups take them in-season, be aggressive for starting options on the waiver wire, and obtain cheap excess veterans sitting on other owners’ bench a year or two into the league.
