Andre Ellington was already declared out in Week 14 for the Arizona Cardinals. At first Marion Grice looked like the play and backup to monitor, then Stepfan Taylor was announced as the lead option during the week. Sunday rolled around and Kerwynn Williams, the former Indianapolis Colts running back emerges with 19 rushes for 100 yards. The rest of the Cardinals backs combined for 10 rushes and 24 yards on the ground.
Should We Care?
Absolutely. Andre Ellington has been playting horribly this season. In fact, Ellington is the lowest-rated running back – of 142 – on ProFootballFocus in the rushing category, below the likes of Darren McFadden and Toby Gerhart aka the threshold for dreadful. Ellington is not an after-the-contact guy, so the meager 1.8 average after contact should be no surprise. Ellington also has a 6% missed tackle rate on his carries, which is alarming for a back without C.J. Spiller-like acceleration and overt athleticism. Let us not forget that Ellington, while many have him as a top-10 dynasty back, this is a 6th round NFL draft pick and a prospect with a meager 29 overall score in the projection model. No aspect of Ellington’s profile sticks out as ‘earmark this player for NFL success’. That means that every step of the way Andre Ellington should be met with skepticism if his production falters. Ellington was not an Isaiah Crowell situation where he was a clear top-100 talent that fell due to off-the-field concerns. This was a sub-par athlete that failed to log even one above-average collegiate season as a runner or receiver. Stashing a Cardinals running back not named Andre Ellington just makes good sense.
Which Back to Stash?
Let me start off by saying that none of the four Cardinals running backs are all that great. None have a projection model score higher than 51 and the NFL Draft did not look at any of them until pick 140 – well into day three. Here are key metric aspects for each running back:
Andre Ellington
Overall projection model score of 29 with no category mark even average. That accounts for his slip during the 40-yard dash as well. He came into the NFL at 24.6 years old (aka nearly retired) and failed to be a good college producer despite being 2-3 years older than also everyone on the field.
Marion Grice
Like Charles Sims, if Marion Grice does one thing in the NFL it will be catch passes. His 94 receiving score tops the Cardinals quartet of backs. He is on the thin side at 6’0″ and 208 pounds and his speed-acceleration is forgettable. At least Grice is young (22.4 when entering NFL) and has the most wiggle of the group despite his weight-adjusted 3-cone score still scoring a woeful 38 in the model. Think poor man’s Charles Sims with Grice, but his athleticism score of 21 points to a low-upside, last-ditch option kind of outlook. In emergencies one breaks glass, consider Grice the glass of Arizona running backs.
Stepfan Taylor
Taylor was my ‘throw spaghetti against the wall’ hedge against Andre Ellington in the preseason. Why did I like him? Certainly not his athleticism as Taylor scores a 15 in the category, the worst of this group. It was for his well-rounded game, which Jonathan Dwyer and frankly with Ellington’s lack of between-the-tackles prowess, did not possess. Taylor has well above-average rushing and receiving scores from college, which is not all that common, especially for backs drafted outside the top-100 and from a major conference. His lack of athleticism probably had something to do with that. Nevertheless, my stance was if Andre Ellington was not who many projected him to be, Taylor was the choice. Things looked good leading up to Week 14 with Taylor as the starter, but 6-19-0 rushing with a single catch is not how a back takes advantage of a wide open opportunity.
Kerwynn Williams
Williams was the least discussed name leading up to this week. He had a little buzz in the dynasty community when landing on the Colts. Like Grice, Williams had an excellent receiving score in college (91) and equaled Andre Ellington with a poor age-weighted rushing score of 30. However, Kerwynn Williams’ athleticism score of 44 ties Ellington for tops in the group. Williams’ short shuttle and weight-adjusted 10-yard split are both solidly above-average for running back prospects of the last 15 years. Williams should have had more appeal as a stash option prior to putting up 100 yards on the Chiefs this past weekend. Athleticism pays at the running back position as well as being able to catch the ball. Williams is the best combination of those two in the Cardinals backfield.
This time of year is when the roster turnover in dynasty leagues *should* be high with dropped kickers, defenses, and dead-end low-upside stashes. Any of the three non-Ellington running backs in Arizona are worthwhile holds into the offseason. All three came into the NFL on the young side (22.4 years old or younger) and have strong enough production scores to make their lackluster athleticism more appealing. Marion Grice and/or Stepfan Taylor were likely picked up prior to this week, but Williams is all-but-guaranteed to be available this week. While Andre Ellington has name appeal, remember these aspects of his under-the-radar dreadful season:
- Ranked dead-last (RB53) in rush rating among backs with 25% of more of the snaps
- Ranks RB48 in yards-after-contact per attempt
- Ellington is RB8 in carries on the season, but RB34 in missed tackles
- Finally, his elusive rating by PFF is ahead of only Matt Asiata, Doug Martin, and Alfred Blue
Consider the Andre Ellington the favorite heading into the offseason, but this backfield is far more open than any Ellington owner-backer would admit. All four are under contract for next season at modest-cuttable salaries and do not be surprised if Arizona signs or drafts a back that stamps down the value of all of them.
