Latest reports are that today the NFL and the NFLPA plan to come to an agreement on a new drug policy. As a direct quote from the NFL.com article, one of the points of the agreement is “Reassessment of penalties already levied during the 2014 league year.” Obviously the NFLPA and the NFL are looking to soften the use of non-performance enhancing recreational drugs in order to gain testing for the performance enhancing HGH.
As a result, it appears that both Wes Welker and Josh Gordon are in for a reduction, or reversal, of their suspensions. Wes Welker’s return will help his owners in the short-term as either a WR3 or trade chip, but I am less concerned with him since he was only looking at a four game ban. It is the Josh Gordon news that is absolutely huge, and as dynasty owners we now are left with some serious question marks.
Here is a snapshot of what we currently know about Josh Gordon:
- He is capable of being a top five, if not the best, wide receiver in the league.
- He is only 23-years-old.
- He has been kicked out of football multiple times for marijuana use
- He checked into rehab, but does not consider himself an addict. (A serious red flag if he is in fact an addict.)
- He has a DWI that is currently unresolved, and may be subject to further disciplinary actions.
Once the news broke about Gordon’s possible reinstatement, I rushed out and added him in all my redraft leagues. I was hesitant to do a write-up about it at the time, because I put the odds at it actually happening at around 10%. Then a couple days later, ESPN’s Toni Grossi put the odds at 50/50. Earlier today, the report was that reinstatement for Gordon was imminent.
Reinstatement of #Browns WR Josh Gordon appears imminent. http://t.co/P2iXkUwvGM
— Tony Grossi (@TonyGrossi) September 9, 2014
Where do we go from here?
Simply put, I cannot tell you exactly how to handle this situation. In redraft and keeper leagues, go ahead and add him if he is still available, but dynasty is another monster. I know from previous reports, that Doug would suggest selling Gordon. I cannot argue against that. I also could not argue with those who want to hold onto Gordon. As a Gordon owner in every league I play in, I know the struggle that many of you are now facing. I would steer away from trying to buy Gordon now as the time to get him on the cheap has passed (for now.)
One thing I do know is that Gordon’s price point is actually quite high. August ADP data had Gordon going 66th overall, and in the expert draft Chad took part in, Gordon went at 6.12. This puts him right around WR32, but if he were to be reinstated, I would expect to find him back in the top 15-20. His overwhelming character concerns means he will never be valued as a top-10 dynasty asset again, let alone a 1.01 option like he was from February-April. Still, selling Gordon at WR15 value is a great exit point to acquire a player who possess some outstanding upside with much less risk. I would not invest Gordon into an older, depreciating, player. Instead, I would aim high for:
- Mike Evans
- Brandin Cooks
- Michael Floyd
- Christine Michael
- Bishop Sankey
- Carlos Hyde
- DeAndre Hopkins
Obviously some of those names would be quite difficult to get, but Gordon’s upside is arguably higher than any of them, and they all fit into that 30-60 ADP range where Gordon projects. Kelvin Benjamin and Justin Hunter are a couple other guys I would really have to think about, and would be good options to look into if you are desperate to be rid of Gordon. Avoid guys like Terrance Williams, and Kendall Wright.
I would argue against taking this opportunity to sell Gordon low, and most of your offers will be pretty low. Personally, I am holding Gordon rather than opting out for 80-100 ADP value. If you are like me, then you already made moves to fill the void in Gordon’s absence by using proven UTH techniques, and do not need to sell low.
In the end, fantasy football is a game, and you need to decide the level of frustration you are willing to put up with in the case of a guy like Gordon. I remember hearing the same argument a couple years ago on a podcast when the host (I apologize for not remembering which one) was taking about owning Darren McFadden. He wanted no shares because owning McFadden is frustrating. Owning Gordon is equally frustrating, and means the possibility of waking up any given day to see another lengthy ban. Right now, even before the reinstatement news is announced, is another opportunity (possibly the final one) to be rid Gordon for top 50 value.
