Jay Ajayi was one of the first running backs I watched in-depth from the 2015 NFL Draft class. Matt Waldman covered Ajayi in one of his RSP Film Room Sessions, which are outstanding by the way. The Boise State running back improved on his 126 total yards per game last season to 168 per contest in 2014, including 38 through the air. One thing is for certain, Ajayi has no trouble catching the ball with his +44% age-weighted receiving score in the model.
Physically, Jay Ajayi is in a similar boat to T.J. Yeldon – likely to weigh-in at 210-225 pounds and will be on the taller side of the running back spectrum. The projections are for Ajayi to have average-to-above-average straight line speed for his size. Jay Ajayi is unlikely to challenge for the a top-3 rookie draft pick slot, which puts him in the T.J. Yeldon, Duke Johnson, maybe a another running back or two in the mid-first round, and then a host of possible wide receivers. Jay Ajayi projects as a better receiver than Yeldon, but not as established as Duke Johnson in that regard. However, Ajayi has the size that Johnson lacks, but not the athleticism of Yeldon. This makes for a fascinating pre-draft process for these three backs.
Jay Ajayi has a rock-solid production profile in the model, which historically makes for a safe future fantasy running back. Looking at similar rushing and receiving scores to Ajayi, produces the following results:
- Mark Ingram
- Dion Lewis
- Jahvid Best
- LeSean McCoy
- Marshawn Lynch
- Steven Jackson
- Willis McGahee
- Anthony Thomas
- Lamont Jordan
- Jamal Lewis
All but Dion Lewis have produced VBD in a season to-date, including at least 375 each from Lewis, Jackson, Lynch, and McCoy. Plus Dion Lewis is the only name on the list to be drafted outside of 53 overall by the NFL, another positive sign. One negative about this production-based comparable list is that Jay Ajayi falls in the lower band of athleticism scores. That could change with a strong combine, but I would not project that based on what I have seen to-date. That means that outside of LeSean McCoy, the most productive names on the list are much better athletes than Jay Ajayi’s current projection. Finally, most were also younger than Ajayi’s 22.2 years old coming out of college. Being a strong producer, above-average athlete, and very young as a running back is really the Golden Triad in the projection model. Ajayi has the production part, but is not quite there from an age or athletic standpoint.
To give a little projection about Jay Ajayi athletically prior to the combine, the comparable list is far gloomier when looking solely at this current projected physical traits:
- Charles Sims
- Orleans Darkwa
- Matthew Tucker
- Cierre Wood
- Bernard Pierce
- Chris Ogbonnaya
- Kevin Smith
- Tashard Choice
- Wali Lundy
- Chris Perry
- William Green
- DeShaun Foster
Only Kevin Smith emerged as a fantasy starter in his NFL career to-date and the myriad of early NFL draft picks are replaced with mid-round or undrafted options. This dichotomy of comparable lists between his production and athleticism puts Ajayi’s combine as a more vital component than most of the other 2015 running back prospects. I would love for Jay Ajayi to settle in as a late first round rookie pick this spring. Ajayi is one of the potential risers post-combine, but currently as an edge of pause surrounding his projection model profile.
