Defensive backs are the most volatile position in the IDP world. We can increase long term predictability by focusing on safeties. The 2015 safety draft class has a few players with the potential to be multiple year, high scoring fantasy assets. Below are the top safeties with their currently projected BASED score. It should be noted that these player’s BASED scores will change as we get combine, pro day, and draft data. These players are listed below with their college and their currently projected BASED score.
Tier 1:
Tier one is comprised of players with a projected BASED score above 18, using all the data that is currently available. These guys are starting caliber safeties that should be drafted highly even if they are not superstars at the combine.
Landon Collins, Alabama: 38
Collins is the consensus top-ranked safety eligible for the 2015 draft. Collins is thickly built and appears to have good speed. He has great tackling skill and excels at taking the ball away. Collins has the range to play free safety, but projects better as play breaking up strong safety. Assuming Collins does reasonably well at the combine, we are looking at prospect on par with Calvin Pryor or better.
Just a friendly reminder that Landon Collins won the SPARQ national title in 2011. http://t.co/kdaHIP1ovs
— Zach Whitman (@zjwhitman) January 2, 2015
Jalen Mills, LSU: 20
Mills projects best as a free safety in the NFL. Mills has quick reactions and looks very natural playing in zone coverage schemes. On tape he often doesn’t break down to make tackles, instead throwing himself at the ball carrier. He will need to focus on better tackling technique at the NFL level. If you are looking for a 2014 corollary, it would Ha Ha Clinton-Dix.
Derron Smith, Fresno State: 19
There are some height concerns with the 5’10” Smith, but he plays bigger than he is. He posses great ball skills and looks good in coverage. He often shows nice tackling skills, although sometimes he misses when he goes for the splash type hit. I think he would excel in a scheme where the safeties are interchangeable like in Buffalo. The combine should help us better understand whether Smith has the athleticism to be a starting caliber NFL safety.
Karl Joseph, West Virginia: 18
Joseph is a very hard hitting strong safety type of player. He looks very at home playing up in the box, which helped him notch 82 tackles this year. He has drawn a number of Matt Elam comparisons. I expect Joseph to continue to flirt with the top tier in the BASED model once we see his combine data.
Tier 2A
Tier 2 is made up of players that currently project in the middle tier of the BASED projection model. This tier of the model is split evenly between perennial studs and busts. I broke this tier into two groups due to the number of players falling in it. The 2A group has the best chance to move up, and have little chance to drop to the third tier.
Durell Eskridge, Syracuse: 15
Eskridge is a lanky player at 6’3″, 203 pounds. His best skill is tracking the ball when it is in the air and using his big frame to deflect and intercept passes. Eskridge is a little slow to react and is not a punishing tackler. Eskridge doesn’t posses elite speed and it obvious when he tries to cover fast and agile receivers. If Eskridge is able to put on some bulk he might become a solid NFL safety or big nickel DB.
Gerod Holliman, Louisville: 15
Holliman has been on an absolute tear this season tallying 14 interceptions and 37 tackles. Holliman was also recently awarded the Jim Thorpe award for the best defensive back in the nation. His tackling is technique is suspect, and some believe his career year was a fluke. Holliman could be the one of the most divisive safeties in this class.
Gerard “RightPlace Right Time” Holliman finally makes a tackle and hurts himself.
— Mike Loyko(@NEPD_Loyko) December 31, 2014
Sam Carter, TCU: 15
Sam Carter has great instincts and ideal size for an NFL safety. There are some questions about his speed and explosiveness. His draft stock and BASED could change a lot based on his combine performance.
Anthony Harris, Virginia: 14
Harris is ranked by some as the second best safety in the class. I think Harris lacks the power, build, and speed to be a top safety in the NFL. Harris’s best qualities are his leadership and sound tackling form. I think he projects at best as a nickel DB at the NFL level.
Tier 2B
This tier of players have projected scores to be in the second BASED tier but have a better chance to slip to the third tier then to move up into the first. These guys all have questions about performing at the NFL level and really are not worth discussing in detail unless we see some compelling combine data.
- Cody Prewitt, Mississippi: 13
- Jaquiski Tartt, Samford: 13
- Kurtis Drummond, Michigan State: 12
Tier 3:
Safeties below a score of ten in the BASED projection model have almost no chance to be productive NFL safeties. Currently these players have projections in the low teens but that is because I’m using averages for some of the metrics that I have no insight into yet. I expect many of these guys to end up with a BASED score below ten, putting them soundly in the third BASED tier.
- Jeremy Cash, Duke: 11
- Jordan Richards, Stanford: 11
- Isaiah Johnson, Georgia Tech: 11
- Byron Jones, Connecticut: 11
- Corey Cooper, Nebraska: 10
- Adrian Amos, Penn State: 10
- Doran Grant, Ohio State: 10
- Ibraheim Campbell, Northwestern: 9
Conclusion
Honestly, only players in Tier 1 and Tier 2A are worth considering in most dynasty IDP drafts. The combine data and NFL draft scout opinions could shake these tiers up a little bit. I will provide an update after the combine and after NFL draft. There are very few busts with safeties over an 18 BASED score, but those few busts have a similar profile. These players look like ultra athletic players, that see a large draft stock jump after the combine. Thus, I would exercise caution if we see any work out wonders from tier 2B or 3.
