Duke Johnson, already, is a polarizing prospect for the 2015 running back class. One of the aspects of the projection model I have looked at more of late is a running back’s weight. That is Johnson’s most glaring weakness at a pre-combine estimate of 196 pounds.
Production is not an issue for Duke Johnson with +39% rushing and +52% receiving, including two straight seasons of at least 125 total yards per game at a very young age. Touchdown scoring has not been a major strength for Johnson, which is something one would expect an the NFL level as well. Johnson is not going to be collecting dozens of goal line opportunities, outside of a 2014 Ahmad Bradshaw-like receiving element, at the next level.
Next comes his projected athleticism. The bar is set high to wow the projection model for a running back of sub-200 pounds. At this early stage, there is more downside to Johnson at the combine, outside of weighing in at 205+ pounds and nailing most of the drills and measurements.
Filtering the projection model to backs in the 190-200 pound range, the average athleticism score of the group is -10% of the total running back prospect pool of nearly 700 players. Chris Johnson and C.J. Spiller were the only two backs since 1999 to post more than +30% in the category. In short, it takes an athletic freak to score that well in this low weight range. Behind the Johnson and Spiller tier is Jamaal Charles and Jahvid Best. Then a tier or two lower sits Duke Johnson. That is the reason I think Johnson, despite his overall projection score (which is aided tremendously by his ridiculously low 20.7 age) is not as safe as the numbers indicate.
I have watched a few games of Duke Johnson. My general ‘eye test’ takewaway has been that he is a better version of De’Anthony Thomas in terms of his offensive role. He is an excellent receiver and dynamic when at full-speed in space. However, creating between the tackles, laterally breaking down a defender in a tight area, or churning out yards once contacted by even a linebacker will not be a significant portion of Duke Johnson’s game in the NFL.
One final sifting of the projection, looking at the 190-200 pound running backs drafted in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft:
Most were outstanding pass-catchers entering the NFL. In fact, Duke Johnson’s +52% receiving score is less than the average of the group. Johnson’s +11% athleticism score (again, blowing up the combine can change this) is also below the average mark of this 15-back subset. Brian Westbrook was a fantasy success. He had a +228% receiving score and landed in the perfect situation for his skillset. Chris Johnson? Rare athlete and dominant pass-catcher in college. Ray Rice? Elite rusher for his size. Jamaal Charles? The perfect blend of a lighter running back prospect with +25% or higher in athleticism, rushing, and receiving.
At this point, Duke Johnson looks to be a poor man’s version of Jahvid Best by the projection model. Landing spot and nailing the combine will be key to maintaining this dynasty outlook.
