Cody Latimer barely saw the field as a 2014 rookie. A second round NFL-drafted receiver at or below 2 PPR PPG in year one is pretty rare. Since 1999, there have been 13 receivers before Latimer to fall below that threshold from the second round.
The names on that list are not a positive indicator to Cody Latimer’s future fantasy prospects. In fact, the last receiver from the 13 to turn from a first season no-show to a fantasy starter is Vincent Jackson, who did not even eclipse 8.0 PPG through his first three NFL seasons. Here is the complete list:
- Cody Latimer
- Brian Robiskie
- Devin Thomas
- James Hardy
- Jerome Simpson
- Malcolm Kelly
- Limas Sweed
- Dwayne Jarrett
- Sinorice Moss
- Terrence Murphy
- Vincent Jackson
- Tim Carter
- Robert Ferguson
- Jerry Porter
Vincent Jackson and Jerry Porter are the lone prospects to emerge into fantasy starters from this list. The historical 40% hit rate on a generic second round receiver plummets to 15% with a poor rookie season similar to Cody Latimer. Plus, Latimer’s projection model score is not all that strong – a 56 overall – ranking in the bottom half on this list. The biggest boom-bust factor for a receiver prospect is weak age-weighted college production. Latimer’s 41 production score qualifies.
Looking at the above peers, Latimer most-closely resembles a blend of Limas Sweed and Jerry Porter. While Porter is qualified as a success with three years as a fantasy starter, his VBD total was only 40 in those three seasons.
Add to this grim outlook the Peyton Manning decline on display and the ripe situation that was touted for Latimer during the summer could be a tattered pair of jeans by midseason 2015 under center. I expect a solid window to sell Latimer in the offseason and recoup, at a minimum, most of the purchase price from early 2014 rookie and startup drafts.
