This is a dynasty trade executed April 5, 2017 where I ended up buying Will Fuller. Prior to the trade, the roster was in the mid 300s in trade calculator value. I previously wrote about this team, and the team is entering a contending window. The rosters are 26 players, and start 1QB, 1RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2Flex, 1K and 1DST. The scoring system is stock PPR.
The Approach
I had a hard time churning value in this league because the roster is still in a building phase. I’m entering a competitive phase with some long-term assets on the roster that are hard to market. With five rookie picks in the top 16, the plan was to continue building through the draft with the pick flexibility to move around for target players.
Then the Tony Romo retirement news broke. Within hours, an offer hit my inbox from the Will Fuller owner. With only Tom Savage and Brandon Weedon under contract, the Houston Texas looked like the most likely landing spot for Romo. With Romo out of consideration, the owner clearly showed his concern about the Houston Quarterback situation.
The seller’s concern about the quarterbacks in Houston is transparent. However, I think it does little to hurt Fuller’s value. In my study, about 80% of the PPR scoring of Wide Receivers with above 50 targets is predictable by targets. Quarterback play matters in the 20% remainder, but this trade is an example of overvaluing quarterback concerns.
Fuller started 2016 well and returned a 2017 1st round rookie pick in trades. However, injuries and a poor offense capped Fuller as a WR4. Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins both saw startling low efficiency with each about 1.33 and 1.31 points per target respectively, about 20% below the NFL average of 1.65 in 2016.
Now, Brock Osweiler, their brutally inefficient quarterback, is gone in a salary dump. While Tony Romo is no longer an option, it’s hard to imagine Houston fields a worse quarterback than last season. With 1st round pedigree and good flashes in 2016, Fuller should be a profitable investment over the next 12 months.
The Trade
Give: 2.02 and Brian Quick
Receive: Will Fuller and Matt Forte
The first salvo from the Fuller owner was Fuller and Allen Hurns for 2.02 and Quick. With several Hurns-type receivers on my roster, I wanted different exposure so I countered with Forte. The offer was quickly accepted a few hours letter.
While I am not as big a fan of Fuller as others at UTH, Fuller is all but certain to have a better resume than any receiver in the early part of the 2nd round of rookie drafts. He will be locked in as the WR2 in Houston. While Lamar Miller and C.J. Federowicz help in the passing game, it’s unlikely anyone in the Houston offense will cap Fuller’s usage as a high-end WR2 in terms of market share.
In addition, Matt Forte is dirt cheap. Acquiring him as a throw in is a cheap upside play for a team in need of running back help. Overpriced last season around the 6th round of ADP according to Rotoviz in 2016, Forte produced RB2 value on a per game basis. Now, Forte’s ADP is in the 14th round, and represents a stronger value for a contender. As a throw in, he’s a strong add to the deal.
Roster Highlights
Russell Wilson, Jared Goff, Teddy Bridgewater
T.J. Yeldon, C.J. Prosise, Matt Forte, Wendell Smallwood, Darren Sproles, Dwayne Washinton, Tim Hightower
Mike Evans, Brandin Cooks, Corey Coleman, Jordan Matthews, Will Fuller, Breshad Perriman, Tyler Lockett, Sammie Coates, Leonte Carroo, Michael Floyd, Bruce Ellington
Tyler Eifert, Eric Ebron
Picks
1.02, 1.03, 2.03, 2.04, 3.02, 4.02
Going Forward
The game plan going forward is to try and package situational assets to move up in the rookie draft. Players like Sammie Coates and Wendell Smallwood could see increased value in pre-draft OTAs. As always, churning the roster, and moving up in the rookie draft are keys to the April dynasty playbook.
Forte adds running back depth that helps with draft flexibility. Trading for need makes drafting for the best player available easier, particularly at 1.02 and 1.03.
