Dynasty team-building stories have been well-received since the early days of UTHDynasty.com. This orphan overhaul story comes courtesy of UTH Superfan and Academy ‘Interrogation Room’ feature guest Pat. You can find him on twitter @DynastyDictator. His 2016 startup draft was top-notch against some stiff competition. In this story, however, Pat took over an orphan needing to be reshaped and shined up back in 2014. Here is Pat’s journey:
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I had never planned on taking over an orphan team, especially a really lousy one. However, good but unexpected opportunities sometimes slap you right in the face.
In November 2014, I was given the opportunity to take over an orphan team in Drunj32, a 32 team, 2-conference behemoth of a league that includes a number of writers, analysts and podcast hosts from the dynasty and fantasy industries. I was still somewhat new to dynasty, so I jumped at the chance to join this star-studded league. This was my first, and so far only, orphan team.
The league effectively serves as two independent, parallel 16-team leagues until one overall league champion is crowned in Week 16. The league is tight end premium with 25 man rosters, two IR spots and starting lineups of QB (1), RB (2), WR (3), TE (1), Flex (2). As you can imagine, in a deep 16 team league, orphans are … well, dreadful. I certainly had my work cut out for me.
After a 3-team dispersal draft in the beginning of January 2015, I walked away with a roster that included the following:
QB Derek Carr, Carson Palmer, Geno Smith
RB Arian Foster, Danny Woodhead, Zac Stacy, Orleans Darkwa, Mike Tolbert, Ryan Williams, Terrance Cobb
WR Sammy Watkins, Torrey Smith, Marquess Wilson, Jeff Janis, Nick Toon, Chris Givens, Vincent Brown, Da’Rick Rogers, Quinton Patton
TE Tyler Eifert, Larry Donnell, Charles Clay, Luke Willson, Colt Lyerla, Brandon Bostick.
2015 Picks 1.09, 2.02, 2.09, 3.02
This dispersal draft took place before the 2015 breakout seasons of Carr and Eifert, so at the time, my team was pretty abysmal. Phase 1 of my rebuilding plan was to liquidate as many of my older players for rookie picks (universal currency) or “unproven” players. With rookie picks in hand, I could then shift to Phase 2 – proactively targeting my young receiver prospects of choice. From January 2015 until now, I executed 15 trades, patiently mining value in small increments over time. The more significant moves are outlined below.
- Gave Arian Foster, Torrey Smith
- Received 1.08, 1.10, 2.05
- UTH Trade Calculator: +400.0%
I had been shopping Foster and Smith for awhile, but when I saw this counter-offer pop up on my phone, I scrambled to accept it as quickly as possible. It was more favorable to me (in my opinion) than my initial offer which had been rejected. As a result, I didn’t even try to squeeze any extra juice from the deal – “Accept.”
- Gave 1.08, 1.09, 2.02, Ryan Williams
- Received Allen Robinson, 2016 1st (ended up 1.15), 2016 3rd (3.15)
- Deal executed on 3.3.2015
- UTH Trade Calculator: +89.3%
At the time, I didn’t consider this a huge windfall because Robinson had not yet embarked on his 2015 breakout season, but it was an example of my willingness to pay up for a young, core receiver. I remember hedging a bit when my trade partner insisted on adding Ryan Williams into the deal since Williams was generating buzz at the time as a possible candidate for the lead back in Dallas. I am really glad I didn’t haggle over an ancillary piece and potentially jeopardize the deal that landed me Robinson. Almost a year later, this trade was a landslide victory in my favor.
- Gave 1.10
- Received 2016 1st (1.02)
- Deal executed on 3.6.2015
- UTH Trade Calculator: +110.8%
My trade opponent had the worst team in the league in 2014 and had already traded away his 2015 . I projected that his team would struggle again in 2015 and I rolled the dice. It certainly worked out in my favor.
The league held its rookie draft in May 2015, and I entered with only two picks with which to work. Making moves proved difficult, and I ended up simply using my picks for two high upside receivers in Sammy Coates (2.05) and Chris Conley (2.09). Although I am perfectly fine with these picks, Javorius Allen, Karlos Williams, and Matt Jones of note were all available at the 2.05 and/or 2.09. Lesson learned – break ties in favor of running backs once you get into the 2nd round.
- Gave Allen Robinson, Larry Donnell, 2016 2nd (2.02)
- Received DeVante Parker, Ladarius Green, 2016 1st (1.14)
- Deal executed: 6.29.2015
- UTH Trade Calculator: -11.6%
At the time this deal was made, there was not a huge difference in my eye between Parker and Robinson. Since that time, Robinson emerged as a clear 1st round startup pick, Parker got hurt, and my draft pick upgrade in this deal ended up being a marginal one. However, that future first I picked up helped me orchestrate another critical deal later.
*Chad Note* This is a great example of a trade which was very sound in its execution but short-term turned into a worst case scenario. Even still, it was a narrow loss by the trade calculator. Robinson was an upside Year 2 play who broke out in historic fashion. While Parker had big-time pedigree but did not flash until late in the season after working through a slow start. Pat could still win this handily in the long-term. Also, look at the bad luck on the rookie pick side of the deal. My bigger picture takeaway would be – look at all the trades Pat executed and he crushed some with huge gains while the losses (maybe even temporary) were minimal ones and based on rock-solid strategy.
- Gave DeVante Parker, 2016 3rd (3.01)
- Received Breshad Perriman, DeAndre Smelter, 2016 2nd (2.15)
- Deal executed on 9.12.2015
- UTH Trade Calculator: +3.6%
At the time, I considered Perriman a small downgrade from Parker (and both were injured), so I was happy to make the move while adding Smelter and a rookie pick upgrade. However, again, the upgrade in picks ended up being minimal, and I gave up the best piece in the deal.
- Gave Marquess Wilson, 2016 1st (1.14)
- Received Kevin White
- Deal executed: 10.22.2015
- UTH Trade Calculator: +164.5%
With White still sidelined and a real possibility he could miss the entire season, I was able to take advantage of a desperate owner in win-now mode. I made this move after it became clear (to me) that the 2016 1st I was holding would likely be a late one. So, I was eager to cash out for someone who had held 1.03 rookie pick value before his injury.
- Gave 2016 1st (1.13), 2016 1st (1.15)
- Received DeVante Parker, 2016 3rd (3.01)
- Deal executed: 11.3.2015
- UTH Trade Calculator: +117.6%
So, I had traded for Parker twice and dealt him away once this season… always trying to gain a bit of extra value in each transaction. The 13th and 15th overall picks for Parker and the 33rd pick? Yes please.
The 2015 NFL season was a productive struggle for my team, and I earned the 2016 1.01 with a 2-10 record. My roster as of February 2016:
QB Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, Ryan Mallett
RB Lance Dunbar, Christine Michael, Zac Stacy, Branden Oliver, Orleans Darkwa, Michael Dyer
WR Sammy Watkins, DeVante Parker, Kevin White, Breshad Perriman, DeAndre Smelter, Chris Conley, Sammie Coates, Quincy Enunwa, Chris Givens, Tayler Gabriel, Terrelle Pryor, Russell Shepard, Justin Blackmon
TE Tyler Eifert, Ladarius Green, Tyler Kroft, Luke Willson
2016 Picks 1.01, 1.02, 2.01, 3.01, 3.08, 4.08
2017 Picks Extra 3rd
For a 16-team league, I feel I have a solid duo at quarterback and tight end. More importantly, I have a very strong stable of young, blue chip receiver prospects. I was able to pull off this transformation by making plenty of trades – some of which I arguably “lost,” to turn my older veterans into rookie picks with universal appeal. I was then able to selectively cash in some of these chips to acquire my target players. At one point, I held five 2016 1sts, but I accurately anticipated which were likely to be late picks and unloaded them for premium, but injured, prospects (Perriman, Parker, White). I also retained the rookie picks I assessed to be early ones, and I will therefore roll into the 2016 rookie draft with the 1.01 and 1.02.
While I might be tempted in the coming months to patch together a running back corps for a run at the 2016 playoffs, I always envisioned a 2-year rebuild for my team. Because owners can start up to 5 receivers each week, I might add more elite receiver prospects while continuing to ignore running back until the later rounds in 2016 or even, perhaps, until 2017. However, after a year of persistence and hard work, I can see the light at the end of the tunnel. I just need to be careful not to rush the process – good things come to those who wait.
*Chad Note* Pat is spot on with his gauge of the next 12 months of ownership. I have Ezekiel Elliott as a quality 1.01 selection at this early stage in the draft process, but would be open to moving down from 1.02 in order to pick up a 17 1st (projected non-playoff) and probably stay inside Round 1 of 2016 when the draft gets closer (or is on the clock). Adding Elliott and figuring out a way to extract an extra 17 1st or two would be to-do list items from now until rookie draft day as I refine my strategy for this team. Thanks so much to Pat for sharing his dynasty orphan journey!
