Prior to the start of the NFL season, it is important to have a grasp on the value of 2018 rookie picks. With the knowledge of 2018 rookie picks, in season trading decisions will be easier with flip players.
Quarterback
Three popular names in the first round discussion of the 2018 NFL draft are USC’s Sam Darnold, Wyoming’s Josh Allen, and UCLA’s Josh Rosen. In rookie ADP, quarterbacks are inversely related to the strength of the class. In years like 2012, where there was a generally weak class, Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III, went in the top 4 of rookie picks.
When rookie drafts have strong prospects at other positions, quarterbacks get pushed down into the second and third round of rookie drafts.
Sam Darnold projects as a number one overall draft pick, and in a class that projects strong, should be in the conversation around first and second round turn in rookie drafts. Rosen and Allen project late in the second and into the third rounds of rookie picks.
Running Back
The running back position projects to be loaded with prototypically sized backs in 2018. Penn State RB Saquon Barkley and LSU RB Derrius Guice highlight the class. Both project to be first round NFL draft picks and top 3 rookie picks.
Beyond Barkley and Guice, the class has a high pedigree and prototypical size. Nick Chubb, Royce Freeman and L.J. Scott are all 220+ pounds with rushing and receiving pedigree. They all profile as a day 2 NFL pick, and slot into the middle to back end of the 2018 first round rookie picks.
The class also has high upside runners with production questions entering 2017 rookie season in Kalen Ballage, Chris Warren III, and Jordan Scarlett.
The class also contains a number of runners who have a high pedigree with capped 2017 roles in Bo Scarborough, Sony Michel and Damien Harris.
There are also some “tweeners” at the position including Ronald Jones II, Mike Weber Jr., and Myles Gaskin. All three have strong supporters but questions about their profile at this point in the process.
Wide Receiver
There are also some solid names at the wide receiver position. SMU’s Courtland Sutton returns for his Junior year after flirting with entering the 2017 draft. He has a strong game at the catch point and plays a lot of bully ball. He should be the top receiver off the board in May. If so, Sutton will be in the conversation with Barkley and Guice in top 3 rookie picks.
The receiver position after Sutton has some questions. Equanimeous St. Brown and Richie James have their supporters but at this point in the process project as complimentary projects. James Washington fits the thick productive JuJu Smith-Schuster/Davante Adams scope of the position. His ceiling may not be a poor man’s number 1 receiver, but he has a solid metric and tape profile. Christian Kirk fits a similar type of profile of thickness but wins in shorter areas than Washington does. Both profile among the rare day 2 receiver recommendations we make in the first two rounds of rookie picks.
Like some of the running backs mentioned above, Auden Tate is another player who has the ability to vault up the draft board. He has enviable size and speed combination but lacks high-level production thus far in his career.
Calvin Ridley will be a clear avoid player with poor metrics and questionable tape. However, he is likely a “name” guy who is in the later round one rookie pick next May.
Overall, the receiver position in 2018 projects as the type of class where you will want to be very selective and focused in the Sutton, Washington, Kirk mold. However, there will be other owners that value St. Brown, James, and Ridley. That will cause target receivers, or solid running backs to fall later in the draft. It is also very early in the process so keep in mind the receiver landscape can change quickly. John Ross and Cordarelle Patterson are recent examples of players who come from obscurity into round one of rookie drafts.
Tight Ends
The tight end position was a historic strength in 2017. The 2018 class will not repeat 2017, but Mark Andrews is a highlight. He has the opportunity to carry a large market share of Oklahoma’s offense in 2017. Andrews is a prototypically sized tight end with enviable movement and route running abilities. He should be in the conversation for a round 1 NFL pick and the back end of round one rookie drafts.
Additional tight ends include Troy Fumagalli and Mike Gesicki. Each are likely in the round two or three area of rookie drafts.
Bottom Line
At this early point in the process the 2018 class projects to be a strong one. While there are some receiving profiles to avoid, you will be able to take a prototypically sized running back with pedigree at any point in the first two rounds of rookie drafts.
Keep that in mind in the season when flip player situations present themselves. If you flip players in the flip range of the running back workhorse matrix for 1st or 2nd round picks you will likely be able to select a player with the acquired pick that has a better pedigree in May.
