Sammy Watkins represents a great trade target at his current valuations. Injury history and a limited game script have owners wary of Watkins’ long-term value. This makes him a great target as a buy low.
Injury Concerns
Any talk about Sammy Watkins’ trade value centers around his injury history. Ankle and hip injuries plagued him in 2015. Watkins underwent surgery on his hip to repair a labrum tear in 2015. During the 2016 offseason, Watkins underwent surgery on his broken left foot. He returned to the start the first two games of 2016, but experienced continued pain in his foot. He sat out two months to rest his foot before returning in week 12. After he returned Watkins was a limited player still fighting through foot pain.
His 2016 was a lost season finishing with 28 catches, 430 yards and 2 touchdowns in 8 games.
In January, the Bills announced Watkins had a second surgery on his left foot. Dr. Jene Bramel at FootballGuys.com talked about this being a likely outcome for months. In addition, former Chargers team doctor David Chao, spoke positively about the news.
Yes @sammywatkins can return to 100%.
Look at @DezBryant @Edelman11 @juliojones_11 as examples. https://t.co/Gu3Pp5u1fy— David J. Chao, MD (@ProFootballDoc) January 2, 2017
A surgery is never good news for a player’s value, but a successful surgery should eliminate the chronic pain Watkins hobbled through in 2016. As Dr. Chao noted, the revision surgery Watkins had in January has been done on Dez Bryant, Julian Edelman, and Julio Jones. All three players returned to high levels of productivity.
Watkins’ Production
At the start of the 2017 season, Watkins will be 24 years old. In 37 games through his first 3 seasons in the NFL, Watkins produced 13.5 points per game in PPR formats.
The new Buffalo coaching staff should help the passing game. Former Denver offensive coordinator Rick Dennison will lead the Bills offense in 2017. In 9 years as an offensive coordinator in Denver and Houston, Dennison’s offenses average 15th in passing attempts. By comparison, the Bills ranked last in 2016 in passing attempts with 474. The 15th ranked team was Tampa Bay who had 578 passing attempts. That is a difference of 6.5 passing attempts per game.
In games Watkins has played, he accounted for 23% of Buffalo’s targets in 2016, 24% in 2015 and 28% in 2014. This combination of target share and volume has left Watkins with remarkably low opportunity. Compared to the 18 wide receivers currently going in the first 2 rounds of DLF’s ADP Watkins ranks last in targets per game over the last three years.
At the same time, in PPR formats Watkins has produced 1.8 points/target, which ranks 9th among those 18 receivers.
Projecting forward, if Buffalo rises to league average passing attempts in 2017, and Watkins maintains a 25% market share of the targets, he will be a value. Watkins would account for 144 targets, which is 9 per game. With his career 1.8 points/target, he would project for 16.2 points/game, which would be mid-WR1 production.
With better health, Watkins has the ability to outpace 1.8 points/target and 25% market share of targets.
Watkins Value
Watkins continued injury history and second foot surgery has driven down his trade price. Recent trades for Watkins include
- 1.03 for Watkins (39.6% trade calculator value gain)
- A.J. Green for Josh Doctson and Watkins (92.6%)
- Julio Jones for Kevin White, 1.08 and Watkins (90.4%)
This is a screaming bargain for Watkins.
Watkins owners are annoyed by his injury history and are looking to get out of owning him. The best way to target him is offering a late first rookie pick and a package up type like Tyreek Hill. You could also acquire him as a piece of a larger deal for an elite player.
Either way, look to target Watkins. His surgery is good news for his future value, and he is coming at a huge discount.
