@DynastyDictator has been a regular guest contributor at UTHDynasty.com. This time, he hits on a big subject of team-building, unproven players, and the dynasty marketplace:
The most fascinating aspect of dynasty fantasy football is evaluating the various team building strategies one can employ. Since adopting the UTH methodology, I have occasionally gotten involved in Twitter debates concerning one of the more polarizing team-building topics: whether and when to trade “proven” studs for unproven rookies or rookie picks. And, as UTH has grown in popularity, I have seen a number of industry insiders spout from their pulpits that youth is overvalued in dynasty. However, even after reviewing many of these analysts’ Tweets, rankings, and articles, I still come to the opposite conclusion, i.e., that “unproven” players and rookie picks continue to be undervalued – especially premium blue-chip WR prospects. As a result, I decided to put my theory to the test.
My typical litmus test for the marketplace is Julio Jones. Admittedly, Julio is an absolute stud, universally coveted in dynasty leagues, but he is approaching the age when his market value will gradually start to decline. Part 1 of my test involved a simple Twitter poll that asked people to choose between Julio Jones and the top 2 WRs in a hypothetical, “random year” rookie draft[1]. As you can see below, the poll was overwhelmingly in favor of the Julio side. This is what I had expected.
@MyFantasyLeague @FFDynastyTrades @dynastytrading PPR dynasty. This is not for 2016 rook WRs but for a “random year”
— The Dynasty Dictator (@DynastyDictator) May 21, 2016
Part 2 of my study was reliant on data collected, and a graphic created, by @the_FF_engineer (thanks Kevin for your permission to use your work in my article). In his work, @the_FF_engineer compiled Round 1 rookie ADP from 2009 through 2015 (see below). Using Kevin’s ADP data, let’s analyze the above hypothetical Twitter poll involving Julio Jones dating back to 2009:
Top 12 rookie picks in start up drafts, by year. pic.twitter.com/NlSnXIHddj
— Kevin (@the_FF_engineer) April 21, 2016
- In 2009, the first two WRs off the board were Michael Crabtree (1.02) and Jeremy Maclin (1.07). So, would you rather have a 27-year old Jones or a rookie Jeremy Maclin and rookie Michael Crabtree? Maclin has produced two WR1 seasons to date (2010, 2014) and Maclin/Crabtree combined for three WR2 seasons (2012, 2015 x 2). I wouldn’t be surprised if the duo put up a couple more WR2 seasons between them, but I’d probably take Julio’s projected output moving forward over the entirety of Maclin’s and Crabtree’s careers. However, it certainly is not a landslide: how confident are we that Julio’s future production is superior to two more WR1 seasons and three more WR2 seasons?
- In 2010, the first two WRs off the board were Dez Bryant (1.03) and Demaryius Thomas (1.06). Would you rather have a 27-year old Jones or a rookie Dez and rookie Demaryius? This one is a landslide victory in favor of Dez and Demaryius. From 2010 through 2015, the Dez/DT combo produced 7 WR1 seasons and one WR2 season. I think it is reasonable to expect several more in the future. However, even if Dez and Demaryius never played another game, does anyone realistically expect Julio to produce 7 more WR1 seasons? That is extremely unlikely.
- In 2011, the first two WRs off the board were none other than Julio Jones (1.02) himself and A.J. Green (1.03). So, would you rather have a 27-year old Jones or a rookie Jones + a rookie Green? Again, any rational person would choose the “rookie” side in a landslide. From their rookie seasons through 2015, Julio and Green have produced 6 WR1 seasons and two WR2 seasons. Regardless of what Julio does moving forward, and even if Green never played another snap in the NFL, trading a 27-year old Jones for a rookie Jones and rookie Green is extremely lopsided in favor of the rookies.
- In 2012, the first two WRs off the board were Justin Blackmon (1.03) and Michael Floyd (1.07). Oh, what might have been if Blackmon could have avoided his off-the-field problems. For Floyd, the jury is still out, but he has been a disappointment to date. Most everyone would prefer a 27-year old Jones over a rookie Blackmon and rookie Floyd.
- In 2013, the first two WRs selected in dynasty rookie drafts were Cordarrelle Patterson (1.04) and Tavon Austin (1.05). Additional analysis isn’t really necessary – everyone would easily choose a 27-year old Jones over a rookie CPatt and rookie Tavon. In fact, it is worth noting that years like 2013 are often cited by critics of the “studs for picks” methodology. It is also worth noting, however, that the Julio vs. the 3rd and 4th WRs selected in 2013 dynasty drafts is a more interesting comparison. Would you rather have a 27-year old Jones or a rookie DeAndre Hopkins (1.06) and rookie Keenan Allen (1.08)? My unscientific opinion is that the majority would select rookie DHop and rookie Allen.
- It is a bit early to assess 2014, but the first two WRs taken in rookie drafts that year were Sammy Watkins (1.01) and Mike Evans (1.02). Would you rather have a 27-year old Jones or a rookie Watkins and a rookie Evans? Well, I conducted a Twitter poll on this one as well, and, not surprisingly, the poll was ridiculously one-sided in favor of Watkins and Evans.
@MyFantasyLeague @DynastyValues @dynastytrading @FFDynastyTrades Pick a side, PPR dynasty:
— The Dynasty Dictator (@DynastyDictator) May 19, 2016
- I will not include 2015 rookies in this analysis because we are only one year removed from that draft and one of the two rookie WRs (Kevin White) has yet to play a snap.
In summary, the hypothetical trade of Julio Jones for the top 2 WRs in a given dynasty rookie draft comes out as a 3-3 tie from 2009-2014. By that measure alone, if “unproven” players were properly valued compared to a “proven” stud like Julio, the Twitter poll would be close to a 50/50 split. However, my above analysis further revealed that in three of the years (2010, 2011, 2014), the deal was overwhelmingly in favor of the rookies. As I discussed in a prior article (https://uthdynasty.com/trades/dynasty-strategy-lesson-conservatism/), an owner trading away a stud doesn’t have to win the trade more than 50% of the time for the deal to be worth executing.
So, what does all of this mean? When objectively analyzed, the results of my first Twitter poll discussed above should have favored, perhaps even strongly favored, the top 2 rookie WRs over Julio Jones. The fact that the poll was overwhelmingly in the opposite direction is more evidence that “unproven” players and rookie picks, especially top-ranked WR prospects, continue to be undervalued by the market.
[1] I emphasized that this was for the top two dynasty rookie WRs in any hypothetical “random year” as opposed to a specific year, such as 2016 (Julio vs. Laquon Treadwell + Josh Doctson). The point was not to compare Julio to specific players but to compare him to the general/average value of the top WRs in any given rookie class.
