This guest contribution comes from @DynastyDictator on twitter, a UTH subscriber, and superfan. Thanks so much for sharing your dynasty journey with the UTH community:
The UTH trade calculator is a great tool for evaluating trade offers and even entire dynasty rosters. Chad recently commented that a team with a trade calculator point total of more than 400 points was “dominant,” while a 500+ point team was “historic.” I thought that was pretty interesting because the first team I ever drafted (in June 2014) totals 516.6 points according to the UTH trade calculator.[1] This is the story of how I built that team.
My juggernaut actually began with a whimper. In the first two rounds of the startup draft, I selected two young but somewhat “proven” WRs: Alshon Jeffery and Keenan Allen. However, it was beginning in round 3 where the traditionalist would say I went off the rails:
- I traded my 3rd round startup pick for a 2015 and a 2016 1st round rookie pick.
- I then selected a bevy of unproven players and rookies, including Brandin Cooks (4th), Christine Michael (5th), Carlos Hyde (6th), Odell Beckham (8th), and Allen Robinson (10th).
With practically no RB production in the 2014 season, I persevered through a classic “productive struggle” and earned the 1.01 rookie pick after year 1. While my big decision in the offseason was whether to draft Amari Cooper or Todd Gurley, I also had to realistically evaluate my entire roster. Unfortunately, I didn’t believe I was ready to compete in 2015, so I decided to take some big boy gambles that blew up in my face:
Deal #1
- Give: Alshon Jeffery + 4.01
- Get: Davante Adams, 1.08, 2016 2nd
Considering the huge disappointment that Adams was when given an opportunity in 2015, there is no way I’d make this deal again. According to a Twitter poll that concluded in late May 2016, 84% of respondents thought I got the losing end of this trade.
Deal #2
- Give: Keenan Allen, Josh Huff, 2016 2nd
- Get: Giovani Bernard, 2016 1st, 2016 3rd
I was never a huge Keenan Allen fan – in fact, I had regretted taking him in the 2nd round of this startup and had thought his rookie season would be his most productive. I also forecasted Gio to regain the lead back position in CIN. As of today, however, I was wrong on both of these projections. My Twitter poll recalibration of this trade (as of late May 2016): 74% of respondents thought I lost this deal.
So, I headed into the 2015 season having finished last in 2014 and having regretfully traded away the first two players I had selected in the startup draft. Also, as previously noted, I never made a 3rd round start up selection and my 5th round startup pick (Michael) has been a complete bust.
Given all of this, I still finished 3rd in 2015 while building the odds-on favorite for the indefinite future. How is this possible? Despite losing Jeffery and Allen in a couple poor trades, I still had an enviable young WR corps of Cooks, Beckham, and Robinson. Adding Gurley to the mix certainly helped as well. As my team pulled into the upper tier in the 2015 league standings, however, I resisted the urge to impatiently chase points while (accidentally) sabotaging my roster’s long-term potential. Instead, I continued to make deals that hurt my short term prospects. For example, with my only two TEs of note being Ladarius Green and Austin Seferian-Jenkins, I traded Green and a 2017 2nd for a 2017 1st. Because ASJ struggled to recover from an early season injury, I was fortunate to find a quality stop gap off of waivers with Gary Barnidge. However, I ended up shipping Barnidge off as the trade deadline neared, along with my own 2016 1st, for another team’s (projected high) 2016 1st and a 2016 4th. Again, I was left without a serviceable TE – my best option was Richard Rodgers – as I battled for playoff positioning. However, I still earned the #4 seed and my downgrade in TE had no impact on my team’s ultimate 3rd place playoff finish. Am I glad I made these midseason moves? Absolutely. The 2017 1st that I acquired in the Ladarius Green trade belonged to a team that finished in 11th place last year and who did not have his own 2016 1st to restock the cupboard. Shipping off Barnidge? That ended up being Barnidge and 1.10 for the 1.03. Thank you very much.
All of my proactive, patient, calculated gambles left me in the enviable position of a 3rd place finish in 2015 while holding 1.01, 1.02, 1.03 and 1.08. How did I get the 1.01, you might ask? Remember that trade where I sent my 3rd round startup pick for two future 1sts? That 2016 1st turned into the 1.01, so I added Ezekiel Elliott to Todd Gurley to form a formidable RB pairing. Because of my team’s strength and depth, I made a consolidation trade that primarily involved my sending the 1.02 and 1.03 in exchange for Mike Evans. I was also able to re-acquire Ladarius Green without giving up a future 1st or a core asset. As a result, I head into the 2016 fantasy season with a loaded roster chock-full of young, age-insulated studs or premium, blue-chip prospects.
Cynics may argue my “pretty” roster has yet to win anything of consequence. While that is true, I don’t care about what happened in years past. The future is extremely bright. If I don’t win at least two of the next four championships, my team will have underperformed.
Cynics may also argue that I simply got “lucky” by hitting on stud prospects like Robinson and Beckham, or that the 2014 rookie class was an outlier. However, I would disagree to a large extent. As one of my prior articles[2] revealed, past rookie drafts have been littered with prospects who are now considered proven studs. I also have a 2015-drafted super flex team that I expect to be just as strong 12 months from now. Finally, I don’t consider it “lucky” when someone hits on rookie picks – the more picks you have, the more on which you will hit. After all, in Blackjack, if you have an 11, double-down, and then get dealt a king, you arguably were a bit lucky. However, it was a smart, calculated risk where the odds were in your favor. Over time, taking those kinds of gambles will ensure that luck is on your side.
I have learned two main points from building this team. First, I should never be afraid to make mistakes, as regrettable moves will certainly happen. However, occasional mistakes will not prevent me from building a powerhouse. Second, my team is a great example of what can happen by remaining patient and building for the future even while competing in-season. If I keep taking one step back, followed by two steps forward, I eventually will be way ahead of the pack.
Current Roster
QB Ryan Tannehill, Jay Cutler
RB Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott, Carlos Hyde, Giovani Bernard, Matt Jones, Kenneth Dixon, Jerick McKinnon, Dwayne Washington, Tre Madden.
WR Odell Beckham, Allen Robinson, Mike Evans, Brandin Cooks, DeVante Parker, Donte Moncrief, Devin Funchess, Davante Adams, Mohamed Sanu.
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Ladarius Green, Jared Cook, Vance McDonald
2017 1,1,3,4
2018 1,2,2,3,4
[1] This total was calculated June 6, 2016, using the 12-team PPR, neutral settings.
[2] https://uthdynasty.com/strategy/overvalued-youth-myth/
