This entire article was spurred from an instant messenger conversation I had with a league mate, and that my friends is why we are here today. For starters just take a minute and re-read the title of this article — “Contender or Pretender?”. It is actually a very important question to ask yourself as a serious dynasty football player. The line in the sand should be gigantic because the difference between the two could not be more clear. So let us define the two options right off the bat.
Read Between The Lines
Contender: A perennial playoff team that has a roster constructed with enough fire power to win a league title. A team loaded with noteworthy assets that is built to win today, and may or may not have future prospects on the depth chart.
Pretender: A team that under the right circumstances has a “shot” at the playoffs, but does not legitimately have the roster to navigate to a title. In addition to a relatively sub par roster this team also has a fairly delusional team owner that has convinced himself that he is “taking home the trophy”.
Which Are You?
There is nothing wrong with being one of the least winning teams in your league if you have a plan to recover. There is however something very wrong with being one of the least winning teams in your league and convincing yourself that you have a “grade A” roster. For instance, the owner that inspired me to write this piece believes he does not need to look ahead to the future. He believes that despite his best pieces being aged ones that he does not need to consider trading them before their value takes a nose dive. This my friends is a great way to fall out of league relevance forever.
I did not know this about him till I made a play for one of his running backs, Marshawn Lynch. In return for the aged yet still very productive Lynch I offered up two high-end and promising young talents. One was tight end Tyler Eifert a 2013 first round NFL selection to the Cincinnati Bengals — the other was a choice I left up to him between Charles Johnson of the Minnesota Vikings or John Brown of the Arizona Cardinals. Now, I specifically stated to him that these options were not final and I would gladly re-work something into the trade to acquire the rights to Lynch (a draft pick/player change). After some days of thought he came back to me and said, “No thanks, I am just going to ride Marshawn Lynch until his wheels fall off over the next two years” — this is where my mind became boggled.
JUMbo #FantasyFootball Bust Alert: Marshawn Lynch. 29 yrs old. 1000 touches since 2012. Hijacked #Seahawks for $12m more guaranteed dollars.
— JUMbotron (@Johnny_U_Miller) March 7, 2015
Our Pretender
Being confident is fine, but not if it is supported by 1,200% delusional theory and a lack of dynasty education. Chad and Doug ALWAYS preach the notion that you should trade when a players value is high 1-for-1 or if the situation calls for it use that player and something else (player/draft pick) and package up. This owner’s lack of experience or general confusion on NFL running back age cliffs may be to blame and this is where I say, “to each his or her own”. Just for kicks here is a glimpse at a majority of his 20 man roster:
Still Relevant (Young/Valuable).
- Jamaal Charles
- Marshawn Lynch
- Golden Tate
- Eric Decker
- Isaiah Crowell
- Drew Brees
- Ben Roethlisberger
No So Relevant (Old/Significant Value Decline).
- Scott Chandler
- Ahmad Bradshaw
- Anquan Boldin
- Antonio Gates
- Fred Jackson
- Andre Holmes
- Jermaine Kearse
- Zac Stacy
- James Starks
- Taylor Gabriel
- Kerwynn Williams
This is a roster that is just one year removed from a start-up draft, and the real kicker is that he finished 2nd overall in the league. I think the combination between inexperience and his 2014 league finish morphed him into this “I can win now mind state”. It only takes one look at this roster to realize that the trade-able options he does have are beginning to lose relevance and the vast majority of his team is already irrelevant.
Final Thought
Although my trade offer may not have been exactly what he was looking for or even enough to satisfy some fantasy owners ROI (return on investment), the offers was solid. This particular owner much like some of you may be at this roster impasse point, and its time to decide if this IS or IS NOT the year(s) for you to compete. Just like I explained to this owner if by week 4-5 of the NFL season you are not certain you have a real chance to compete today or even next year than I would not wait to move some of your aging but still valuable assets for draft picks or younger prospects right away.
What Marshawn Lynch’s value is (or others like him) heading into 2015 will assuredly be less heading out of 2015. So the question again is, “Contender or Pretender?”. If you can define who you are today or early into 2015 the better off you’ll be from a trade asset and strategy stand point heading into 2016.
#PackageUp
