This is a dynasty rebuild trade where I focused on buying some risk in a 12-team PPR league. There are roster limits of 25 players and starting requirements of 1-1-3-1, 2 Flex, Kicker, and Defense.
The Approach
I have written about this team a couple of times, most recently where I adjusted to the unexpected. I thought my roster was a contender coming into the season, but injuries and poor play left me out of contention. The result was some immediate production sitting on my roster and an opportunity to consolidate to some riskier upside.
I have Devontae Booker on my taxi squad and I set out to shop him around the league. Booker has been a hot name around UTH lately. I was not a big fan of Booker’s in the pre-draft process. I spent a late 2016 first round pick in a weak rookie class with the hope his market value would increase in-season. After C.J. Anderson’s injury forced him to Injured Reserve, Booker was able to secure his grasp on Denver’s running back workload. As a 24-year-old rookie who will likely have to compete with C.J. Anderson for touches over the rest of his rookie contract, Booker’s stock rose over his draft value and now is the perfect opportunity to cash out.
The Trade
* Trade executed on November 4, 2016 *
Gave Randall Cobb, Devontae Booker
Received Sammy Watkins, Brian Quick
After a few offers around the league, it became clear the most promising prospects were with the Sammy Watkins owner. Watkins has strong metrics and I think his film is exceptional. His biggest risk is injury related with repeated foot injuries, but I am reassured by his recent rehabilitation news. In addition, the injury risk of Watkins presented a discount over his top 20 startup value from just three months ago. There is some concern about the upside of Watkins in the Buffalo Bills offense, but when healthy, he is a No.1 receiver in his offense by a large margin. That type of role supports a stable fantasy asset. In the midst of some rebuilding, adding a risky asset at a discount was an attractive strategy.
The Watkins owner was in a good situation to target for a trade. He 3-5 but is the third highest scoring team and a game back of a playoff spot. The owner sent me a message inquiring about Randall Cobb and Lamar Miller. I felt comfortable the owner was buying immediate running back and wide receiver talent. I responded with Cobb and Booker for Watkins and Spencer Ware, which he rejected with a counter for just Watkins. He had little 2017 draft capital, but I wanted some juice on top of Watkins to balance out the risk I was taking on his health. After a little back and forth I sent him Cobb and Booker for Watkins and Brian Quick and he quickly accepted.
At this early stage of the 2017 NFL draft process, I have Booker no higher than the sixth in my 2017 running back rankings. By packaging Booker with Cobb, I was able to secure an undervalued elite talent in Watkins. While Quick has been underwhelming since being a 2013 second round NFL draft pick, he has shown improvement this season. Entering free agency his stock has the prospects of rising this offseason with a change of scenery.
Roster Highlights
Russell Wilson, Teddy Bridgewater
Lamar Miller, Giovani Bernard, Jerick McKinnon, James White, Theo Riddick, Mike Davis, Tyler Ervin, Zach Zenner
Allen Robinson, Sammy Watkins, DeVante Parker, Josh Doctson, Kevin White, Michael Thomas, Brian Quick, Robert Woods, Ted Ginn Jr.
Cameron Brate, Vernon Davis, Austin Seferian-Jenkins
2017: 1,1,1,2,2,2,3,4
Conclusion
The acquisition of Sammy Watkins by packaging a situational asset like Devontae Booker with Randall Cobb was a tremendous opportunity to reinforce my core. His risk created some value at a position where I need upside. With 6 picks in the top-24 in the 2017 rookie draft, I like my chances to secure running back talent over the next nine months. I am reasonably comfortable my wide receivers will get healthy and improve during the offseason. At the same time, Russell Wilson should improve from his slow start this season creating a competitive window next season. Going forward, I will continue to shop situational talents like James White and Theo Riddick to advance my draft capital and wide receiving talent.
