On a weekly basis I hear UTH success stories from subscribers and listeners. They are more gratifying than my own dynasty league achievements as we are equipping dynasty owners to dominate in their leagues. UTH Superfan Lynn Moe shared a story from late December 2015, defending the UTH method of team-building:
I was recently listening to another “dynasty” pod cast and the host said something to the effect, I know that there are some analysts out there who believe that in a start-up dynasty draft, you should be prepared to forfeit your first season for the sake of drafting only young players. He went on to espouse the advantages of a “redraft mentality”, saying it was better to draft proven veterans with some young talent mixed in asking, Isn’t the goal to win this season?
If you are like me, and fully invested in the UTH way, this commentary was an obvious snipe at the UTH method (albeit a misrepresentation). This provoked me to want to look back at my journey this season with a dynasty start-up, where I applied the UTH method as faithfully as I could. I wanted to see if my investment in the UTH way was defensible.
The Startup Draft
The start-up draft for this league had a couple of twists. Owners had to include rookie draft picks (5 rounds) as part of the draft plus, the draft was prior to the actual NFL draft so landing spots were an unknown. The conundrum: how should rookie draft picks be valued in a start-up? I mean, surely they don’t have the same value as those proven veterans…. especially if my goal was to win this season.
At this point in the season (February-April), I completely immersed myself in the 2015 rookie discussion. As I was traveling a lot, I had the opportunity to listen to every relevant podcast out there in addition to being a slave to an abundance of written content. Out of this, I whittled down my “stable” of go-to dynasty sources and will say here, in my humble opinion, no other source comes close to providing usable, relevant analysis of player value in dynasty than UTH. With this insight lighting the way, here is my start-up draft with the 5th pick overall:
Mike Evans; Brandin Cooks; Jordan Matthews; RP 1.01; Lamar Miller; Latavius Murray; RP 1.02; Allen Robinson; RP 1.07; Ryan Tannehill; Bishop Sankey; ASJ; RP 2.05; Brian Quick; RP 2.10; Marquess Wilson; Justin Hunter; Josh Hill; Eli Manning; Jace Amaro; Jeff Janis; Josh Huff; Damien Williams; Tyler Gaffney; Allen Hurns.
I will leave it to you to rate my draft (the busts are obvious), but as I said, I did my best to follow the UTH way in both positioning, selection of players and valuing rookie picks. I was happy to come out of the draft with 3-1st and 2-2nd round rookie picks. Obviously the other owners did not value these picks as highly as I did…at this point, I was wondering whether this was a blessing or my potential downfall.
The Rookie Draft
The rookie draft was held after the actual NFL draft. Here we go:
- – Todd Gurley; 1.02 – Amari Cooper; 1.07 – T.J. Yeldon; 2.10 – Buck Allen
Note: I gave up the 2.05 for what turned out to be Cody Latimer (I drank the Kool-Aid) & Tre Mason (starter until emergence of Gurley & then handcuff). In hindsight, I could have gotten David Johnson at the 2.05, he was gone by the 2.10. Deviated from the UTH advice here…lesson learned the hard way.
Notable Waiver Wire Moves
DeAndre Smelter: Hopefully a future “Thanks!!” to UTH.
Dion Lewis: UTH thanks to be doled out in trade section.
Justin Hardy: Hooray UTH Player Spotlight – All-time reception leader in college football history and as Doug pointed out in a way only Doug can do…smokin’ 3 cone drill – wiggles like a worm on a fishhook. I knew to pounce on Hardy when I saw him dropped by an impatient owner for some veteran roster clogger. I am now happy to have him wiggling on my roster.
Tre McBride: Dropped for Rashad Jennings in week 8. What? You heard me right. Thankfully this owner didn’t hear Chad’s take on McBride & Global Warming. I did, and knew to snatch him up.
David Cobb: Dropped for Mike Tolbert in week 11 after he got his first touches and posted 4/-3 against the Jags. Obviously it is better to have that veteran talent on the bench rather than a rookie bust…right?
Significant Trades
Jeff Janis for Karlos Williams & 2016 3rd.
Karlos Williams for Zach Zenner.
With these two trades, I basically gave up an older UTH favorite in Janis for a younger UTH favorite. UTH metrics like Zenner and I love, love the film on this guy…although Williams has flashed nicely, I am sold on Zenner’s potential upside.
Dion Lewis, Allen Hurns & 2016 3rd (from above) for Sammy Watkins, Duke Johnson & 2016 2nd.
UTH was discussing Lewis before he was on anybody’s radar, leading me to pick him up off the wire before other owners even knew who he was. Soon after, the discussion turned to selling high on Lewis and a buy low opportunity for Watkins. Cha-ching. Plus I traded up to what is now a 2016 2.04. Double cha-ching.
T.J. Yeldon & Buck Allen for Jameis Winston & Matt Jones.
I know, I know…maybe not exactly the UTH way. Believe me, I still cringe a bit at the thought of having traded Yeldon. He was my guy. But I am subscribing to a bit different philosophy here. I get the UTH valuation of QB’s, but I have discovered a certain comfort that comes with building a team around a young franchise QB. I think Winston is that guy. We’ll see.
Take-Aways and Conclusions
Ending Roster
QB – Jameis Winston; Tyrod Taylor; Ryan Tannehill; Eli Manning
RB- Todd Gurley; Lamar Miller; Latavius Murray; Matt Jones; Duke Johnson; David Cobb; Orleans Darkwa; Robert Turbin
WR – Allen Robinson; Sammy Watkins; Mike Evans; Amari Cooper; Brandin Cooks; Jordan Matthews; Marvin Jones; Tre McBride; Justin Hardy; Brice Butler
TE – ASJ; Richard Rodgers; Crockett Gilmore
IR – Zach Zenner; DeAndre Smelter
The top two teams finished 10-4 and 9-5 respectfully. My team was tied with 3 other teams at 8-6, and I finished in 4th place based on points. I lost in the 2nd round of the playoffs and am now playing for 3rd place this week.
So, the question is: do I feel as if I forfeited my season by following the UTH method? The fact is that 6 other teams finished behind my team, and I made it to the play-offs. But that is not the whole story. When digging a little deeper into the stats, I discovered a bit of a dark side to my season. My team would have ended up in first place at 11-3, advanced in the playoffs and be in the championship game this week if I had started the optimal line-up each week.
The bottom line? By following the UTH method this season, my team had the potential to win a championship in the start-up year. So I have no problem with not only defending the UTH way, but also endorsing it.
What’s Next?
- Re-up my UTH subscription.
- Learn how to set line-ups better.
- Free up as much roster space as possible in order to make speculative 2016 stashes.
- Dig into the Rookies and prepare for the 2016 draft.
- Develop a better draft discipline (no more giving up a draft pick that turns into a David Johnson for another owner).
Oh did I mention…re-up my UTH subscription.
Thanks Chad & Doug.
