While dynasty is the bread and butter here at UTHDynasty.com – redraft is fantasy football too. Each August I put out a positional guide based on myfantasyleague.com ADP of target and avoid players. Here is the 2015 running back game plan:
Check out the Quarterback Position as well.
Overall Strategy
While I deplore using many early round picks on running back in dynasty drafts, redraft is almost the opposite approach. In shallow leagues there are bound to be some starting options surface during the season from the waiver wire, but the prime backups will be rostered from the outset. After 15-20 backs are off the board, things get murky with questionable talents or tough-to-peg depth charts out of the gate. I like to get at least two backs in the first four rounds of the typical redraft league.
The Early Rounds
Rarely do I get squeezed out of running back in Round 1. It happened once where the best option at turn was DeMarco Murray, where I zagged and took two elite receivers instead. I do not bank on old backs often as they are prone to historical decline and, if nothing else, typically offer less elite upside past their prime. Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, and Matt Forte fit the criteria as avoid players. On the flip side, I like Eddie Lacy in mid-Round 1 (even took him at No.4 overall once). C.J. Anderson is another high-upside option with minimal depth chart competition on a Denver offense I see morphing more to the run in Manning’s twilight years.
C.J. Anderson Might Have More Upside Than Any Back in 2015 http://t.co/dJjPPa3YH4
— Fantasy Douche (@FantasyDouche) August 2, 2015
In Rounds 3-4 I side with the likes of Todd Gurley and T.J. Yeldon over vet options like Mark Ingram, Alfred Morris, or Jeremy Hill. Plainly, I think Gurley and Yeldon are better talents. Gurley may go in Round 2 by drafts in a few weeks with the positive news growing. Gurley can be an Odell Beckham-like impact in October and beyond once up to speed. Lamar Miller and Justin Forsett are intriguing in this range as RB2 options with upside as well.
#Jaguars coach Gus Bradley doesn’t expect pass protection to be an issue for rookie T.J. Yeldon.
— Gridiron Experts (@GridironExperts) August 1, 2015
The Middle Rounds
There are 2-3 backs from the RB20-30 range who out-produce their draft position each year on average. In general, they have strong draft pedigree and projected starters with warts – or seeing a change in team with a potential new role. This year, the names in bright lights are C.J. Spiller (RB20-25 range), T.J. Yeldon, Shane Vereen, and Isaiah Crowell. The key is to hedge on the younger side. Spiller and Vereen have PPR dynamo upside with their 2015 free agent landing spots. Yeldon has a Round 5 ADP (52 overall) as of writing this, but no way I chance him beyond Round 4. Crowell fits the mold of undervalued projected starter with his RB30 price point (87 overall). All of these backs make for quality depth with upside as RB3/4 options.
Going Big Upside
If going for impact was not the name of the game the entire draft (it is), beyond the top-30 or so running backs is were upside is paramount. [bctt tweet=”One lead running back’s stock who has been beaten to a pulp of late is Joique Bell.” via=”no”] I know he has RB1 upside any week his is healthy. How many weeks will it be? No clue, but at RB30-35 prices, I will bet on him in Round 6+ to find out. Ameer Abdullah is not a goal line threat and, at best, takes on the Reggie Bush role of old, leaving plenty for Bell.
Bishop Sankey and the Tampa Bay duo of Doug Martin and Charles Sims fit the mold of dirt cheap potential Week 1 starter as well.
By the RB35-40 range is is all about projected primary backups with enough talent to keep a job and deliver at least RB2 numbers. Here is a quick list of backs who fit the category:
- David Johnson
- Knile Davis
- Matt Jones
- Cameron Artis-Payne
- Andre Williams
- James Starks
- Roy Helu
In a draft with at least 18 roster spots, I like to take a shot on at least of a couple of these names to grab an injury lottery ticket instead of fighting during early season (or before) waivers when a lead back gets nicked up or declared out.
My writeup on RG3, Alfred Morris, Matt Jones, D-Jax, PGarcon, Jordan Reed, Niles Paul & the #Redskins 2015 Win Total: http://t.co/DoM7j9KgYb
— Evan Silva (@evansilva) July 28, 2015
[single_testimonial id=25702]
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