In this post, Katie Flower logs her journey through a dynasty startup draft, while using the UTH Dynasty Trade Calculator along the way. Thanks to Katie for the contribution and for crushing yet another startup draft this offseason. Follow her @FF_Skyler399. Here is her story:
My buddy Ben Mitchell (@UTHallday) and I started our dynasty careers at the same time in the same league. We learned and grew in the hobby and became good friends as well as co-commissioners of a different dynasty league together. Recently we took our dynasty relationship to the next level by co-owning a team. I wanted to share how we were able to use the UTH trade calculator to draft our startup.
Basic League Overview
12-team PPR, TE premium 1.5 ppr, 4pts passing TD, 25 roster spots, 2IR, 3 taxi spots (rookies only)
10 starters: 1 QB, 2-4 RB, 2-4 WR, 1-3 TE, 1 PK, 1 DST
Empire rule: If a team wins back to back seasons then they win the empire pot and the league is over.
The Draft
We drew the 11 spot in the draft and started discussing our strategy. Our plan was to send soft trade offers for the first several picks up through and until both Odell Beckham and Rob Gronkowski were gone, and then switch to more serious offers after that. [bctt tweet=”A soft offer is one that is even for both sides with no real premium/overpay for the move.” via=”no”] If the other owner accepted, it wouldn’t break the bank.
Our soft offers for 1.04 and 1.05 were met with rejection and no counter. Rob Gronkowski was gone at 1.03 (TE premium, so no big surprise) and Odell Beckham was selected at 1.05. We upped the ante on our offers to 1.06 and 1.07, neither budged and Julio and Brown left the board. Our target was Mike Evans and we knew it was time to turn things up a notch.
Trade 1
We made a decent offer to the 1.08 and he responded with a counter:
- Give 1.11, 2.02, 3.11
- Get 1.08, 2.05, 5.08
The way that I use the trade calculator in a case like this is by figuring out the most likely player taken based on ADP. I use the best UTH available player so that the trade calculator will give me the “worst case scenario”. This trade offer in the calculator would look like this:
- Give Randall Cobb, DeAndre Hopkins, Kevin White
- Get Mike Evans, Brandin Cooks, Austin Seferian-Jenkins
The Trade Calculator (FFPC Neutral Settings for TE premium) indicated this would be a 2.8% win for us, we accepted. The guy who accepted the trade ended up using his picks to get AJ Green, Calvin Johnson, and Kevin White. Running that through the trade calculator and it was an actual win by 32.8%.
[bctt tweet=”After taking Evans, the 1.09 traded his pick because he had been sniped.” via=”no”]
Trade 2
Ben is a bit of a Nervous Nelly and can be impatient at times (he would agree with this). While he loved getting Mike Evans to start, he was now looking at the gaping hole in our draft of not having a Round 3 pick and voiced that we needed to make up for it. I talked him down off the ledge and we calmly discussed our next move.
Our next target was in the Cobb-Cooks-Cooper-Hopkins-Gurley-Watkins tier…any one of them and we would be happy. As our 2.05 pick approached, Cobb was the only one from the list that was already gone. We put the pick on the block and fielded several offers. We used the trade calculator to assess each offer just as we had done for the first trade. We rejected a few offers and then this hit our inbox:
- Give 2.05, 5.08, 6.02
- Get 2.10, 4.10, 6.10, 2016 Round 2
[bctt tweet=”Neither one of us had to run this through the trade calculator as it was an instant accept. ” via=”no”] The guy took Marshawn Lynch, Martavis Bryant and Golden Tate with his picks. [bctt tweet=”Running it through the calculator after the fact – we won the trade by 75.5%! ” via=”no”]
With Evans at 1.08 and Cooks at 2.10, we were off to a great core for our team.
Trade 3
By the end of Round 3 it was pretty apparent we had one other UTHer in the draft. He had traded his 1.12 for 2.12 and a 2016 1st. His first three picks were Randall Cobb, Amari Cooper, and Jordan Matthews. By luck of the draft it created a UTH sandwich since we had picks before and after him at the turn of alternating rounds.
[bctt tweet=”This made our strategy of who to pick before him and after him even more critical.” via=”no”] We watched his moves as much as plotted our own. We took Allen Robinson at 4.02 and looking at the board our next target was Yeldon, but would he fall to the 4.10?
Offer, rejection, offer, rejection, on and on. Crunching names and numbers in the trade calculator we came up with a proposal to the guy at 4.05:
- Give 4.10, 5.11, and the 2016 2nd that we just obtained
- Get 4.05, 6.05
[bctt tweet=”He rejected it and then with a dagger through the heart picked T.J. Yeldon.” via=”no”] Ben and I were crushed – this was our first real setback of the draft. The good news is, the guy that took him sent us a PM and said if Yeldon was our target he would listen to trade ideas.
Before going to bed for the evening I resent the exact same trade as the last one he rejected because I knew that it was a solid trade for both of us, except instead of the 4.05 it was Yeldon.
The next morning I woke up early to see that once the 4.10 had gone OTC (on the clock) and he saw his target Gio Bernard was still there, he accepted our trade. He wanted to make the profit on the pick but he didn’t want to accept until he saw that he was not sniped.
It ended up:
Giovani Bernard, Tevin Coleman and a random 2016 2nd for T.J. Yeldon and Isaiah Crowell – a 14.4% increase in value.
Trade 4
Ben and I discussed the importance of having as many top-100 players with upside from the startup as possible. We agreed in TE premium it was important to lock up ASJ if we could. I don’t normally like to part with future Round 1 picks, but because of the empire feature, Ben and I felt alright using the capital.
The other UTH drafter took Davante Adams at 5.07 and didn’t pick again until 6.01. With the start we had compared to other rosters, we decided our team was going to have a good shot at making the playoffs. Assuming ‘Rookie Pick 6’ we plugged this into the trade calculator:
- Give 2016 1st (Rookie 6) and 2016 3rd (Rookie 30)
- Get Austin Seferian-Jenkins
We saw this would be 14.6% in our favor.
We made the same offer to 5.08 thru 5.11 and faced multiple rejections. Just in time to snipe our UTH pal, 5.12 accepted the deal and we got ASJ. If ASJ completely busts or we end up with a top-3 pick in 2016, then this trade doesn’t favor us. But any rookie pick from 4 on and we increase our overall value. I’m willing to gamble on the trade, as well as on ASJ.
Trade 5
The trading and offers slowed down quite a bit after that – a few nibbles here and there. One thing Ben and I noticed was these guys were not playing the TE premium format. By the time Round 8 began, only eight had been taken. We knew we wanted to try and get and extra Round 8 pick if we could.
- Give 10.02, 15.11
- Get 8.11
Our target was Jordan Cameron and worst case scenario we were looking at a 16% gain in value on the trade. The guy accepted and took Brian Quick and Owen Daniels making the final trade at 23.7% value.
Breaking Ties
[bctt tweet=”Another way that we used the trade calculator in the dynasty startup draft was breaking ties between 2-3 choices.” via=”no”] For example, when we were deciding between Jordan Cameron and Martellus Bennett, the calculator favors Cameron by 16%. If it was close in the trade calculator then we would discuss and take our favorite.
The trade calculator is a powerful tool and I have used it in several startup drafts since as well as rookie-FA drafts. It is a great way to play the format and help gauge the value of the special position like TE premium and superflex.
Final Roster
QB: Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Geno Smith
RB: T.J. Yeldon, Isaiah Crowell, David Johnson, Bishop Sankey, Chris Polk, Robert Turbin, Michael Dyer (TS), Karlos Williams (TS)
WR: Mike Evans, Brandin Cooks, Allen Robinson, Donte Moncrief, Devin Funchess, Justin Hardy, Cordarrelle Patterson Aaron Dobson, DeAndre Smelter (TS)
TE: Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Jordan Cameron, Josh Hill, Ladarius Green, Brent Celek
All total, Ben and myself were involved in 38 different trade requests, a good majority of them initiated by us. We were patient and worked our plan the UTH way. [bctt tweet=”The trade calculator gave us confidence, more than any other I had used previously.” via=”no”] Time will tell if we have built the foundation of an empire or not, but we both feel happy with the outcome of the draft!
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