2016 Rookie Value Roller Coaster

The 2016 rookie class was widely portrayed as a ‘down year.’  Trading 2016 picks for 2017 picks was almost impossible and at the peak, some analysts were claiming they would take a random 2017 1st over pick 1.05.  Typically a current year 1st round pick could net you a 2nd and a future 1st fairly easily.  Despite the perception, the 2016 class provided several flip candidates who could have returned high 2017 draft capital.  I will be using June ADP for this exercise.

Early 1st Round

The 2016 1st round had a solid top-4.  These four players were easily worth a 1st round pick during the offseason and arguably each could have netted 2-3 random 1sts.

Late 1st Round

The rest of the 1st round was classified as subpar.  Some said these players are what you would want to see in a typical 2nd round pick.  However, all but Tyler Boyd and Leonte Carroo have had selling opportunities at a 2017 1st round pick or more.  Sterling Shepard, Michael Thomas, and Will Fuller both hit a value of two 1sts at their peak.

2nd Round

The 2nd round was more high variance but still had four players who hit a peak value of a 1st round pick.  Tajae Sharpe is the clear outlier because his peak came before he played an NFL down.  DeAndre Washington and Malcolm Mitchell have the potential to creep into 1st round value discussions.  Several others have not had their opportunity to break through. These players may flash during the remainder of 2016 or in 2017.

Late Rounds

The major hit on this list was Dak Prescott who even in typical start-1 was netting a 1st round pick in some leagues.  Another hit was UTH Favorite Dwayne Washington.  After Ameer Abdullah went down, Washington was gaining steam and could be flipped for a 2nd round pick.  Josh Ferguson never truly popped but was a package up candidate early in the season when he was seeing increased snap counts behind Frank Gore.  In my opinion, the jury is still out on Austin Hooper and Carson Wentz but each had peaks of dynasty value where they could be flipped for a 2017 2nd.

Takeaways

While the class as a whole will not stand up several years down the line, the opportunity for gaining value was present.  Despite the long-term potential of these prospects, owners are quick to chase production.  It is vital to identify players that can be core assets and those that are flip candidates in-season.  This draft class only had a handful of players with true core asset potential. Recognizing this allows you to be confident in selling when a player flashes.

In one of my leagues I had the following draft class.

Kenneth Dixon was the only player I believed to hold significant value beyond 2016 .  After making several moves Dixon and Demarcus Robinson are the only rookies remaining on my roster.  The other players were traded for a 2017 1st and 2 2017 2nds.

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