A new addition in 2015 to the projection model creating an age-based story of a college wide receiver’s production. One way of creating a subset is by looking at receivers that never surpassed their age expectations at any point in their career.
Historical Examples
1999-2014 Timespan
141 prospects fit criteria with 0 seasons above the age baseline
6 produced VBD in an NFL season
- Kelvin Benjamin
- Riley Cooper
- Brian Hartline
- Wes Welker
- Javon Walker
- Travis Taylor
Hartline, Cooper and Taylor barely grazed the fantasy starter threshold in a single season. Welker and Walker were significant hits with 10 fantasy starter seasons between them. Kelvin Benjamin got there in his rookie season.
Using the raw draft position of all 141 prospects to average a ‘hit rate’, the subset *should* return 11.9% as fantasy starters. However, this group of ‘never done it’ receivers hit at only 4.3%. That is a huge identifier to eliminate options.
On to the 2015 wide receivers that fit this criteria….
