Mike Beckley is back and weighing in on the Superflex format for dynasty rookie drafts in 2015. Follow him on twitter at @BeckleyNFL.
I specialize in Superflex or 2QB leagues because I like the quarterback position to matter in dynasty leagues. I like quarterbacks to have trade value. If the scoring settings make it where every team should start two quarterbacks, every starting quarterback has some dynasty relevance. This article will discuss in great detail the relevance of the seven quarterbacks drafted in the 2015 NFL draft. Of course, Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota were drafted to be their teams’ starters, so a majority of the article will be focused on them.
Factors to Consider
League Size
League size is an important factor in determining the value of quarterbacks in Superflex leagues. In a 10 team league, there is not as much trade value for quarterbacks. Many teams have two very strong quarterbacks in this setting and they do not see much value in adding Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota as their third quarterback. Owners of Tony Romo, Philip Rivers, Derek Carr, and Joe Flacco may not see quarterback as a need. In this setting, you really need to take inventory of how many teams could even use Winston or Mariota on their teams. In a 12 team league, a few more teams will have a need at quarterback. In 14 and 16 team Superflex leagues, the value of these top rookie quarterbacks is even higher because most teams will not have two solid plug and play quarterbacks.
Passing Touchdowns
Many fantasy league settings include four, five, or six points per passing touchdown. This variation affects Mariota and Winston differently. In four points per passing TD leagues, Mariota (and other rushing QBs) get a small bump in rankings. (600 rushing yards equals the points of 15 passing touchdowns) If a rushing quarterback gets six rushing touchdowns on the season, this provides a twelve point bump on the season. If a league has six point per passing TD, quarterbacks score a lot more points than the other positions and it adds value to all of the quarterbacks. In this setting Jameis Winston should outscore most other non-quarterback flex options.
Jameis Winston
The biggest knocks on Jameis Winston are his off the field concerns. Of course, there are two sides to every story, but I’m certain that no one has more information on him than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Buccaneers have invested an incredible amount of money in their background checks to decide if Jameis Winston is worth investing in. It is very naïve to think that we know better than a billion dollar company. If they are willing to give guaranteed money and invest their future in Winston, we should be willing to invest a high rookie pick on him. So how high is Jameis Winston worth in a 12 team league?
Jameis Winston fell into a great situation in Tampa Bay. He has Mike Evans, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, and Vincent Jackson all over 6’5” with double-digit touchdown potential. He has Dirk Koetter who loves to throw the ball as offensive coordinator. He has a division with the Saints, Falcons, and Panthers who are not known for their passing defense. He also has a team who will have to throw the ball often to stay in games. I think Winston has a floor of 25 touchdowns just due to his weapons and situation.
If you need a quarterback in a Superflex league, it is reasonable to take Winston at 1.1. He will be a plug and play starter for you and he has a ceiling of being a first round pick in Superflex startup leagues. If he hits, you could flip him for a top 5 young receiver if a team has a need at quarterback. If you don’t need a quarterback, I think it’s reasonable to let him slide to as far as 1.6. You can make an argument that Cooper, Gurley, White, Gordon and Parker could be selected over Winston if he is your QB3. If you do pass on Winston for a player like White, Gordon or Parker, be aware that his upside is first round startup player.
Marcus Mariota
Mariota could have been a no-brainer pick at the 1.1 if he landed in Philadelphia, but instead he may have trashed his dynasty value in Tennessee. He landed on a team with Kendall Wright, Justin Hunter, Dorial Green-Beckham and Delanie Walker as his passing weapons. His rushing attack is not a big threat either. For Mariota to be a fantasy starter, he is going to have to rush the ball and do it often. The points that come from rushing yards are one of the most underrated aspects in fantasy football. Remember when Michael Vick was a top fantasy quarterback?
If Mariota can rush for 600 yards as a rookie (just 37.5 ypg), this is equivalent to 60 points in standard leagues. 60 points is equivalent to 15 passing TDs in a 4-point per passing TD league. This shows you the power of the rushing yards. If you add this to even a modest 15 passing TDs, he can approach top 12 quarterback numbers. He could also get a handful of rushing touchdowns. He also has a division without any strong passing defenses. Because Mariota doesn’t have good weapons, I don’t recommend him as a top 5 pick due to his bust risk. After the top 5 players, I can endorse Mariota due to his QB1 upside. If he is able to put up solid rushing numbers, he will be a Superflex starter. He has a big learning curve and could be cheaper after his rookie season than he is in rookie drafts. He has a very high upside, due to his rushing stats, but he has a pretty high bust risk. If you can get him cheaply, do it.
Garrett Grayson
Grayson raised his stock by being drafted high enough to be the heir apparent to 36-year-old Drew Brees. The Saints spent pick 75 on Grayson and solidified him as the third most valuable rookie quarterback in dynasty leagues. Coming from a pro-style offense at Colorado State, Grayson should get a nice opportunity in the pre-season to raise his stock. Like Jimmy Garappolo and Brock Osweiler, Grayson will be a patience play. If he falls to your third round of your rookie draft, you may want to consider him. If he shines in the pre-season, he could be worth a second round pick to the right owner. If you can hold him long enough for Brees to retire, he could eventually be worth a first round rookie pick. I tend to like my quarterbacks to be first round NFL draft picks, but Grayson is a patience play who could be worth more than his initial rookie draft cost.
Sean Mannion
I was surprised that Mannion was the fourth quarterback drafted with the 89th pick by the Rams. I did not care for Mannion’s tape and I don’t typically care about third round rookie quarterbacks. However, Mannion was drafted high enough that he could get a shot as a rookie if Nick Foles doesn’t seem to be the answer at quarterback for the Rams. If I acquired Mannion in a rookie draft, I would sell him as soon as there was rumor that he would be getting a start. If that happens, I would try to sell him for any future second round pick. I am letting the other Superflex owners take him in the third and fourth round of rookie drafts because I like the running back and wide receiver fliers more.
Bryce Petty
I thought that Petty could be drafted as high as the second round in the NFL draft. The NFL showed what they think of him when he fell to the fourth round. He is coming from a college system where he will have a large growth curve. Luckily, he landed with a team that doesn’t have great quarterback options in Geno Smith and Ryan Fitzpatrick. If he gets a chance, he has good weapons in Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker, Devin Smith, and Jace Amaro. He has Chan Gailey who has made bad quarterbacks productive before. I’m not drafting Bryce Petty for the same reasons I listed with Sean Mannion, but he could be worth a future second round rookie pick if he gets a chance to start. Have tempered expectations for a fourth round pick and let someone else take him in your rookie draft.
Brett Hundley
Hundley was rumored to go as high as pick 19 to the Browns. The NFL spoke clearly again and let him fall to the fifth round. Surprisingly, the Packers took Hundley and can groom him to be their backup quarterback. If Aaron Rodgers got hurt again, Hundley would have a great opportunity to play with great weapons and show his rushing ability. Like the others, I would let someone else take him in the rookie draft. I just don’t have the patience to wait on a fifth round quarterback to increase his value. I would rather take a running back or wide receiver in the later rounds of rookie drafts. If he gets dropped by an impatient owner, he could be stashed on the end of your roster in very large roster leagues.
Trevor Siemian
The Broncos brought on Trevor Siemian in the seventh round. He is recovering from an ACL tear and will likely get a redshirt rookie season. He is not a highly talented player and a seventh round quarterback isn’t worth drafting in rookie drafts in my opinion. I don’t see John Elway giving the keys to the franchise to a seventh round pick. Let someone else take him if they want him.
