Louis Murphy was recently resigned for three more years with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. While Murphy has some deeper dynasty shine (more on that in a bit), still has potentially more impact for Vincent Jackson.
Vincent Jackson will be 32.7 years old when next season kicks off and Mike Evans zoomed past him for the lead receiver role on the team. Once that happens with an older player, their gluttonous salary becomes worrisome. Jackson is $12.2 million each of the next two seasons, which is far beyond his likely impact with Mike Evans and a functional Louis Murphy locked in, plus Austin Seferian-Jenkins on the upswing at tight end.
Jackson has been in decline for two seasons now off his career peak of 16.7 PPR PPG at age 29. The general trend for older players is once they leave top production, they do not return. Expecting Jackson to return to the WR1 area of performance is a low-probability play, if possible at all. Looking at Jackson through my age career arc database of the most productive receivers over the last 25 years, here are the observations:
Jackson is most similar to Keyshawn Johnson and Plaxico Burress overall – Johnson’s 12.8 PPG as a 32-year-old was the best season of either beyond this point in their careers. Art Monk and Andre Reed are also in the mix – Monk being the only one that surpassed even 13 PPG in a season going forward. Derrick Mason was more of a late-bloomer and churned out a season of 15.1 PPG at 33 years old as the outlier.
With minimal dead money compared to the likely overpayment for Vincent Jackson’s production over the next year or two in Mike Evans’ shadow, cutting Jackson is certainly possible. Louis Murphy, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, and Robert Herron are competent secondary options on a team with a likely new (rookie) quarterback in 2015.
Now to Murphy, who was a fourth round draft pick way back in 2009. The projection model is not a fan of Murphy overall due to his shoddy college production. Murphy was never even average in terms of his team’s passing game market share, despite a high-level of athleticism. As the saying goes: full of sound and fury, signifying nothing. The best aspects of Louis Murphy are his initial burst (93 score in weight-adjusted 10-yard split), long speed (ran in the low 4.3s), and possessing huge hands at 10″. Here are some comparable prospects to Louis Murphy by the numbers:
- Devin Aromashodu
- Mark Bradley
- Brandon Jones
- Javon Walker
All of these options are thin for their height, fast, but lacking college production to raise their NFL floor. Walker is only one to become a fantasy starter. Other peers on a physical scale, but with more age-weighted college production include names like Darrius Heyward-Bey, Laurent Robinson, Mike Sims-Walker, and Troy Williamson – a better overall list.
Murphy is certainly worth an add in dynasty leagues of 25-30 roster spots. He would see a healthy bump in market value if Vincent Jackson were to be cut – a chance to flip Murphy in a #PackageUp deal. For Vincent Jackson, my dynasty value chart slots him as worth a late second or early third round rookie pick at this declining point of his career.
