One of the lackluster things from an NFL perspective about Week 17 is half the games can have a preseason-like feel with the bevy of non-regular players seeing action. That makes for an ugly watch for the casual football fan, but for dynasty owners, this could be our only chance to see extended playing time of these young talents since the preseason. One player I am specifically interested in for Week 17 is Josh Boyce. He was on the practice squad, but called to the active roster as their starting receiver are dealing with injuries plus the Patriots have no motivation to go 100% considering their playoff status. Enter Josh Boyce.
I have long been a Josh Boyce supporter for dynasty leagues. He was the 102 overall pick by the Patriots less than two years ago and a well-rounded prospect. Boyce has seen very little playing time in New England and has fallen out of favor, much like fellow 2013 rookie Aaron Dobson. I can only assume it is for the finer points of the receiver position or something off the field as Dobson and Boyce have been the two best overt athletic talents on the depth chart for the past two seasons.
Josh Boyce is one of the better 3rd-4th round wide receiver draft picks in the projection model ever. He is thick, athletic, and productive in college. Only Donte Moncrief in that draft range has a higher projection model score from the 2014 draft class and Keenan Allen is the only one to best Boyce in the 2012-2013 timeframe. Boyce was my go-to stash player a year ago on all my dynasty rosters. With an in-flux of 2014 talent, Boyce trickled off a few rosters during the 2014 season, but he marks an important lesson in dynasty: Never Forget.
Never forget why you were optimistic about a player in the early stages of their career. One example would be Jonathan Stewart. He cannot stay healthy the dialogue form year after year – well, Stewart is healthy now and showing that talent to the tune of one of the most productive fantasy running backs down the 2014 stretch run. My argument with Boyce (and Aaron Dobson) is that they need a change in scenery – the talent is there.
The projection model does a terrific job outlining mid-round wide receiver talent. While the average score of a 3rd-4th round receiver is 46, here are the recent prospects to have an overall score of 60 or more:
- Donte Moncrief
- Keenan Allen
- Josh Boyce
- DeVier Posey
- T.Y. Hilton
- Mohamed Sanu
- Leonard Hankerson
- Cecil Shorts
- Eric Decker
- Andre Roberts
- Mike Williams
Compared to the ‘average’ receiver in the that range, this is a heck of a track record of success. Hilton, Williams, and Allen came out of the gate with fantasy production, as well as Sanu to a lesser degree, but Decker, Shorts, and Robert developed more slowly into relevant fantasy names. DeVier Posey is another interesting fantasy stash as he enters free agency this offseason. Could Boyce completely bust? Of course, and that is the most likely outcome. But in mid-depth dynasty leagues, Boyce is the exact type of desired stash into the offseason: Stock away the talent, check him out in Week 17, monitor his roster status through free agency and the NFL Draft, and churn him without any positive news.
Two final names to add to Josh Boyce from the projection model: Davante Adams and Pierre Garcon. Both similar from a metric perspective.
