Prior to a couple of weeks ago, the name Chris Hogan was likely followed by an internal or external ‘Who?!?’ among the general fantasy football populous. Even my bloated prospect database did not have Hogan listed up until this week. Why?
Chris Hogan: Background
Hogan started out his college career at Penn State….playing lacrosse. After finishing there, he logged a single season of football at Monmouth University…at fullback. He was sparsely-used but did catch 25% of the team’s touchdowns through the air. Not bad for a lacrosse player. His NFL Draft profile over at NFLdraftscout.com lists him as a fullback, without a secondary position other than special teams. At 6’1″ and 221 pounds, it makes sense.
Chris Hogan proceeded to blow up at his pro day back in 2011 (more on that in the next section). He was still ranked as the No.42-ranked FULLBACK in that year’s draft class. Seeing that a handful, at most, fullbacks are even considered draftable in a given year with the dinosaur-like appeal of the dying position in today’s NFL, Hogan was still off the radar.
He goes undrafted and then cycles through the 49ers, Giants, and Dolphins prior to sticking on the Bills in 2012. That season, he saw zero offensive snaps. In 2013, he ran a total of 129 pass routes (per PFF) and closed the season with 72 snaps between Week 16 and 17. He is still on no one’s mind. Fast forward to 2014 and things start slowly with this progression of Snap% through the first five games: 0, 0, 0, 15, 12. Mike Williams turns into a shadow and Marquise Goodwin gets injured. It was time to release the Hogan. He received 40-55% of the snaps the next three weeks, followed by the 80% and 79% of the snaps the last two games. Chris Hogan, the Penn State lacrosse player, has three games of 60+ receiving yards over the last four games, including 12-138-1 on 15 targets in the last two games.
Chris Hogan: Athleticism
Without a history of production prior to the NFL, Hogan is a projection player. First off, his is thick as a steak. At 6’1″ and 221 pounds, his thickness is on par with names like Dez Bryant, Arrelious Benn, Larry Fitzgerald, and Andre Johnson. In short, prototypical.
Next, Hogan’s athleticism for his size is outstanding. In the model, his athleticism score is 85, which is on par with Mike Evans, Brandin Cooks, and Martavis Bryant from the 2014 draft class. He 40-time adjusted for his weight is in the top-20% of all wide receiver prospects dating back to 1999.; his three-cone time as well (6.75). Hogan’s vertical and broad jumps and short shuttle are all above-average. Plus, he logged 28 bench press reps to boot. Athletically, Hogan was a sleeping giant since 2011.
Chris Hogan: Physical Comparables
- Allen Robinson
- Eric Thomas
- Chris Harper
- Junior Hemingway
- Dez Bryant
- Donald Jones
- Michael Crabtree
- Dwayne Bowe
- Larry Fitzgerald
- David Givens
- Rod Gardner
- David Boston
Coming from someone that does plenty of comparable searches for prospects, there is an alarming number of first round draft picks and fantasy starters on that list for a lacrosse-playing fullback from Monmouth. His production score falls in-line with the lowest names on the list like Harper, Hemingway, Jones, and Givens, but Hogan did have just a single year with which to work.
Chris Hogan, despite the last two weeks, is still out there is a decent amount of mid-depth dynasty leagues. This time of year is ideal to start cutting bait with uninspiring veterans that have no market value and will be cuts come rookie draft time for players exactly like Chris Hogan. Unlike many deep stashes, Hogan is already seeing steady snaps and targets. The odds point to Hogan becoming nothing and not even being on the dynasty radar come Week 1 of the 2015 season, but the athleticism and build are present to be the exception. Dynasty owners love to stash the player that makes other owners in the league mutter ‘Who?!?’ when glancing at the transaction email. Chris Hogan is dynasty owners’ who player.
