We talk a lot about drafting those enticing mid-round upside plays and late-round flyers with talent. Just as important as those decisions are in a startup dynasty draft, avoiding the landmines, especially in the early rounds, is MORE important. Looking back at my collected ADP data from August and Ryan McDowell’s (@RyanMc23 on twitter, also a core dynasty asset in his own right over at DynastyLeagueFootball.com) January ADP this month, here is a roadmap to the worst decisions of each round according to startup value lost:
*I will also be point out some players highlighted as target and avoid players from my ‘Perfect Startup Draft’ article from back in August*
Round 1
Worst Picks: LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Brandon Marshall
I highlighted Jamaal Charles and a clear avoid player in August and if one ‘had’ to go running back that LeSean McCoy would be my ‘hold your nose’ selection at the position. McCoy survived to some extent compared to Charles and Marshall, but lagged behind all the younger receiver choices and on par with Jimmy Graham’s drop into the mid-second round.
Round 2
Worst Picks: Cordarrelle Patterson, Adrian Peterson, Montee Ball
Cordarrelle Patterson and Montee Ball were both ‘projection’ picks as Patterson had flashed in a non-conventional ‘playmaker’ role late in 2013 and Ball was the ho-hum talent in a great Denver offense. Patterson survived to some extent with an ADP of 59 still, but Ball barely stayed inside the top-100 with Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson both doing more in the same situation post-Ball in Denver. Adrian Peterson, even without his off-the-field break from the playing field, would have fallen in ADP at his age, but now is barely ahead of Montee Ball in the 90s.
I outlined Ball as a running back target back in August, but in Round 3 and only instead of fellow backs Adrian Peterson, Doug Martin and Zac Stacy.
Round 3
Worst Picks: Doug Martin, Victor Cruz, Pierre Garcon, Zac Stacy
Stacy and Martin were easy calls back in August to avoid. The injury was a significant factor to Victor Cruz falling down to 90 overall, but drafting Odell Beckham at No.12 in the NFL Draft was also some writing on the wall that the gravy train of targets was coming to an end for Cruz as well. Cruz was on my avoid list for receivers in this range back in August. Pierre Garcon? As Doug said repeatedly in the offseason: he was coming off a career-year fueled by a ridiculous target load on a team constantly playing catch-up. Add in a quarterback revolving door and DeSean Jackson in 2014 and Garcon suffered.
Round 4
Worst Picks: C.J. Spiller, Jordan Cameron, Larry Fitzgerald
Fitzgerald was an easy avoid player at his age and recent trend. C.J. Spiller more than doubled his August ADP up into the 90s, and Jordan Cameron doubled his up to 80 as he heads into free agency as well. DeAndre Hopkins and Jordan Matthews (surprise, young highly drafted receivers) were the only assets in this round to rise up the board since January.
Rounds 5-8
Worst Picks: Trent Richardson, Toby Gerhart, Andre Johnson, Ben Tate, Dennis Pitta, Vincent Jackson, Shane Vereen
Landmines abound in this range, where top rookies were easy targets instead. The ‘wait until he has a full offseason in Indianapolis’ defense buoyed the Richardson stock until he gave way to Ahmad Bradshaw and then Daniel Herron. Toby Gerhart? Remember when he was ‘locked into 250+ touches’ this season? Me either. At least I refuse to acknowledge a world where Gerhart was a top-75 startup pick in August 2014.
Every time I see Andre Johnson’s name I still hear the voice of Doug Veatch on Under the Helmet with the ‘pick Andre Johnson, pick Andre Johnson’ teasing whisper as we discussed the dangers of the middle round veteran producers over the last year or two.
Ben Tate is now an afterthought, Dennis Pitta was an average talent that lost time to injury…again, and Vincent Jackson is yet another aging receiver that had little wiggle room with his production to maintain his dynasty stock. Like Giovani Bernard with the Jeremy Hill draft pick, Tampa Bay was directing us to avoid Jackson with the Mike Evans pick, if Jackson was not crossed off startup draft lists already.
Shane Vereen? When will we learn with the weekly whims of Bill Belichek? Plus Vereen is not all that special innately. The result: -88% on Vereen’s ADP in five months.
The best picks in this range? A ton of rookies like Carlos Hyde, Davante Adams, Kelvin Benjamin, Jeremy Hill, Odell Beckham, Allen Robinson, Donte Moncrief, and Cody Latimer. Add in Josh Gordon, T.Y. Hilton, Jeremy Maclin, and Lamar Miller and going wide receiver-heavy in the middle rounds was a value boon centered around highly-drafted NFL draft picks and 2014 rookies.
Rounds 9-12
Worst Picks: Bernard Pierce, Chris Johnson, Johnny Manziel, Frank Gore, Aaron Dobson, Jarrett Boykin, E.J. Manuel, Dwayne Bowe, Ray Rice
If it was not a Ray Rice bounce-back in 2014, surely Bernard Pierce was the play, right? Turns out Justin Forsett was a difference-maker available for free in 99.9% of leagues. Older running backs again on the list, tisk tisk tisk. Historically they are a bad move outside the late rounds and as flip candidates only. Jarrett Boykin falls into the ‘the coaches are telling us what to do’ category with Green Bay stocking up with Davante Adams and Jeff Janis at wide receiver. I still wonder what went wrong with Aaron Dobson and hope for a new opportunity outside of New England for the former second round pick.
Best picks in this range: Emmanuel Sanders, Russell Wilson, Golden Tate, Tre Mason, Jerick McKinnon, Isaiah Crowell. Sanders, Tate, and Wilson were the only three to emerge as top-50 January ADP players from this range.
