Depressed Current Value:
Andre Williams’s stock has hit an all time low recently. This is being driven by three major factors. First, Williams had his chance to shine while Jennings was out and gave the Giants a lackluster 2.9 yards per carry. Second, Rashad Jennings is now back from injury and handled the majority of the work load against San Francisco. Finally, many of the analysts already had a low opinion of Williams, and the showing over the past couple weeks turned the remaining few against Andre Williams. Even our own Chad Parsons had a low opinion of Williams. His value is at an all time low, but where is the upside?
Looks like Jennings is hurt again. Any one know what happened? I stipulate that Andre Williams is awful.
— Michael Salfino (@MichaelSalfino) November 16, 2014
Williams vs Jennings:
The common belief is that Jennings is a better player than Williams. This is illustrated by the fact that Jennings was started in 60.90% of MFL leagues in week 11; While in week 10, when Williams was the undeniable starter, Williams was only started in 49.75% of leagues. There is value in comparing these players closer than standard stats allow. According Pro Football Focus both players grade out negatively this year, but Williams scores a -3.1, while Jennings scores a -3.9. Williams has a better elusiveness rating at 28.6 than Jennings. This score also ranks Williams 35th this season, sandwiching him between LeSean McCoy and Lamar Miller. Jennings is considered the better pass catching back, but Jennings actually has a worse drop rate than Williams. Williams also scores better in pass protection, scoring 8th overall for running backs this year. While both backs have not been good, Andre Williams has been the better of the two.
Offensive Line:
The Giants’ offensive line has been atrocious this year. Left tackle, William Beatty is the only offensive lineman to grade out positively according to Pro Football Focus. The overall guard and center play has been one of the worst overall units with everyone grading out in the bottom 20% of the league. It really should not be a surprise that the Giants have had trouble running the ball and especially between the tackles. The glimmer of hope for Andre Williams is his prowess on proper blocked plays as Shawn Siegele points out using Bill Connelly’s highlight yards statistic. Andre Williams gained an average of 8.0 yards on properly blocked plays in college. The next closest in the 2014 draft class was Carlos Hyde at 5.03 yards per opportunity. Andre Williams annihilated the entire 2014 draft class when plays were blocked correctly up front. If the Giants can turn around their run blocking unit next year, Andre Williams may be able to take advantage of it in a big way.
Hey, there’s Andre Williams. … First carry of the game goes for a loss of four. … O-line giving the RBs no chance at all.
— Ralph Vacchiano (@RVacchianoNYDN) November 16, 2014
Buying Low:
I am not convinced Andre Williams is a top talent running back, but I think there is real data to support that he is better than popular opinion currently thinks of him. Williams is a great target as a “throw in” as part of a bigger deal. He could even be a steal this off season when the hype train for the 2015 running backs starts to get out of control. The Andre Williams roller coaster ride is not over yet, and there are solid indications that there should be at least one more rebound in value.
