I have discussed before that having a list of avoid players along the dynasty startup draft journey is as-important, if not moreso, than a target list of players. Using the invaluable startup mock draft ADP collected by Ryan McDowell of DLF (@RyanMc23), here are early avoid players for the 2015 offseason:
Round 1
The older running backs have been sifted out of the first round since August and LeVeon Bell is all that remains for the position in the top-15. Demaryius Thomas and Antonio Brown are the oldest options among the top-10, but still are near the mid-point of their productive career arc. I am hesitant to go quarterback this early, but I can stomach Andrew Luck in the late first if all the young receivers are gone – which is possible. Of the top-12, that leaves Calvin Johnson as the avoid player. He will be 29.9 years old in 2015 and is *maybe* has a 55% chance at most to outscore any of the much younger receivers head-to-head any given season.
Round 2
Now the running backs are back on the ‘avoid’ list. LeSean McCoy is 27 years old. Jamaal Charles is 28 years old and no way I am touching them anywhere near their second round ADP this offseason. Projecting more than a year or two of starting-caliber production from a running back that age is a losing proposition historically, not to mention the market value loss an owner locks in from the moment of purchase.
Round 3
I am cooling big-time on Keenan Allen. Is he more than a h0-hum possession-type receiver? Maybe, but I doubt it. Give me Michael Floyd, Brandin Cooks, Kelvin Benjamin, or Allen Robinson – all in this ADP range – over the San Diego receiver. Matt Forte? I will not even touch the 29-year-old here despite the back-to-back strong seasons.
Round 4
Julius Thomas is too risky between his free agency status, non-elite talent, and Peyton Manning’s wavering Midas touch for his aerial weapons. Andre Ellington? Still not touching him despite the 10-spot discount from August. I expect Arizona to bring in competition, at a minimum, for the undersized space player. Brandon Marshall? Even in the 40-50 range I am not investing in an early 30s wide receiver. This feels like Roddy White and Andre Johnson from a year or two ago.
Rounds 5-8
The list is long with the expanded range of ADP. From earliest to latest, here are the landmines:
Alfred Morris: Has always been high-floor, but now he is on a dreadful offense and in the middle of his career. Even as an RB2 on a receiver-heavy roster I do not like it.
Marshawn Lynch: A non-zero chance of retirement plus the risks of the typical older running back. No way one can get a mid-first for Lynch in existing leagues yet that is where his ADP lies. Yuck.
Arian Foster: Another guaranteed decliner in market value over the next year or two, regardless of his on-field production.
Marqise Lee: Plainly not a fan of his middling projection model profile and much prefer Allen Robinson on his own depth chart to boot.
Doug Martin: Is there a chance he rises in value in 2015? Yes. I will not bank on that at a this price point, however, considering the better producers at running back available and bevy of young pass-catching talent.
Devonta Freeman: No way Atlanta rolls into Week 1 with Freeman as the starter. Plus, Freeman is a middling talent if he were handed a job.
Victor Cruz: At best I see Cruz being a WR3/4 IF he returns to a string of health.
C.J. Spiller: I see more downside than upside to his value in the spectrum of landing spots in free agency.
Terrance Williams: Not a fan of the talent and being behind Dez Bryant in the short-term does not help.
Rounds 9-12
I could list a ton of players as near-wasted picks in this range, but here are a few highlights:
Peyton Manning: Still way too high considering the leaking short-term production and shrinking time left.
Marvin Jones: Missed a bunch of time and is not a top-shelf talent. I take my shots elsewhere with 2014 or 2015 rookies in this range.
Markus Wheaton: Not a fan and Martavis Bryant looks like the running mate to Antonio Brown, not Wheaton.
Robert Woods: Another complementary receiver locked behind a much-better talent in the short-term.
Tavon Austin: Still not touching the former top-10 NFL Draft pick. (I actually had that acidic taste in the back of my mouth when typing that)
Reggie Bush: 30 years old with eroding skills and Theo Riddick outplayed him in the same role in Detroit. Whether he stays or goes this offseason, He will look like a wasted startup pick within the next 12 months.
