Welcome to Week 4 of Making the Trade, covering the week in dynasty trades from UTH nation. Catch last week’s installment here.
Tag your trade with #UTHtrades on Twitter to join the conversation!
Buy Low Window: Donte Moncrief
Gave: g Tate, 2.1 Got: d moncreif, 1.11 #UTHtrades
— Brad Davis (@Gecko998) April 16, 2015
I love this trade and what I love even more is that it’s totally fair by ADP. According to DLF’s April ADP Tate is being drafted eight spots ahead of Moncrief, so the two spot bump in draft position is light if anything. But I love this trade because Brad is buying Moncrief at a low point in his price. Again according to DLF’s ADP data, Moncrief’s ADP has dropped 15 spots since February. Is 34-year-old Andre Johnson really such a threat to Moncrief’s value? Last year Johnson was highly inefficient and thoroughly outplayed by DeAndre Hopkins. Meanwhile Andrew Luck posted an incredibly efficient 11.5 AYA when targeting Moncrief–who, keep in mind, was a 21-year-old rookie.
Even if Jonson has a Steve Smith type resurgence this year, Moncrief will still have opportunities to shine, as a result of the 184 targets the offense lost with the departure of Hakeem Nicks and Reggie Wayne. In Moncrief you’ve got a 220 lb freak athlete who plays with the NFL’s best young QB and has already flashed top-level talent–so make like Brad and trade a veteran for him and improve your draft position.
Keep Moving Up
Speaking of improving draft position, we’re running out of time to do it. After the NFL draft owners will have more concrete targets for their picks and will start to get attached. Now’s the time to improve your draft position on the cheap. I like these two deals as examples of owners doing just that.
#UTHtrades #dynastytrades Torrey Smith, Percy, 2.10 for 1.07
— MikeFF (@horn_ff) April 17, 2015
Sent Josh Hill & 3.06 Got 2.06 & 4.04 #dynastytrades #UTHtrades
— Big Perm (@BigPerm3313) April 21, 2015
Value for Vets
While it’s still a good time to move up in the draft, it can be a dicey time to sell vets. Everyone loves youth in the off-season, and veteran production is discounted. This can sometimes mean that it’s better to hold a veteran until the season and sell once they produce at a high level. But if you’re going to hold, you need to be confident that they will produce at a high level. These trades involve two guys that I’m avoiding in re-draft and therefore consider dynasty sells.
Sent Forte, Carey & F Jax Got C Mike, 1.09, 3.02, 3.04 & 3.08 #dynastytrades #UTHtrades
— Big Perm (@BigPerm3313) April 16, 2015
Gave Forte. Received M Floyd and 2.12. Rebuilding. #dynastytrades #uthtrades
— Daniel White (@ffdwhite) April 18, 2015
Matt Forte has been fed touches the last two seasons, particularly in the passing game. Not only did Matt Forte have the most targets among all Running Backs last year, he had the 17th most targets in the NFL among all players. He’s also been heavily involved on the ground with the third most rushing attempts in 2013 and the fifth most in 2014. It’s risky to expect a 29-year-old RB with a new coaching staff to keep up that type of workload. Forte is a great player but I think this is as good a time to move him as any.
Which side? Allen Robinson & 1.08 Or Jimmy Graham #uthtrades #dynastytrades
— Doug Veatch (@Harahduh2) April 21, 2015
Forte may see less volume this season, but Jimmy Graham is almost guaranteed to. Graham was traded from the team that finished second in passing attempts to the team that finished dead last. To not lose targets, Graham needs to post borderline historic Market Share for a Tight End. I think it’s far more likely that he sees a dip in production instead and falls into the Greg Olsen range of production. It’s also worth noting that Graham will finish 2015 at the same age that Olsen finished 2014, 29. This may seem light for Graham but like it or not, his circumstances have drastically changed. I’d take the Robinson side and run.
UTH Classic
@DynastyTrades Just Traded Demaryius for DHopkins/1.04, then moved that 1.04 plus TorreySmith for Sammy Watkins. #UTHtrades
— Jason Sparlin (@Jason_Sparlin) April 19, 2015
Not much to say other than I like this trade combo a lot. First, trading Demaryius for Hopins and the 1.04 is about as UTH approved as it gets. Then packaging and flipping the pick for Watkins is even better.
Marqise Lee & Couch Cushion Change
Finally, I just wanted to take a moment to check in on former rising star Justin Hunter.
marqise Lee & $8FAAB for Hunter #UTHtrades
— Jon Phelps (@phelps_jon) April 17, 2015
I don’t necessarily hold out a ton of hope for Hunter, but his big play upside seems worth it at this price. Worth inquiring with his owner; he may be tired of holding.
Join the Conversation
Like these trades? Want to add some analysis? Let me know in the comments or on twitter and make sure to share your trades using #UTHtrades
