Dynasty trading takes commitment, patience, and the caring hands of a top-notch dynasty owner to succeed in the long run. UTH Subscriber and Super Fan Nicholas Savoie documented a recent series of trades, cascading into a solid long-term gain. Here is his story:
You have seen articles about the benefit of trading up, packaging up, acquiring draft picks, and the UTH Trade Calculator. This is a brief article where I took every one of those benefits and hopefully have helped strength my team in a dispersal rebuild to be ready to compete in 2016 and beyond. The sequence of trades took place over a couple of months (Mid-June to Mid-August). the end result was not to get Michael Floyd per say, but to strengthen my team for the long run while sacrificing in the short term.
This is a 12 team PPR league with 26 roster spots (no taxi) and as you will see from the roster at the end, I have no real shot at winning in 2015 and the roster has lots of upside picks and boom/bust hopefuls. I have an open spot as I wait for a waivers claim.
Trade 1
- Gave Jordan Matthews
- Received Isaiah Crowell, 2016 1st, 2016 2nd
Due to it being a dispersal draft, I only had late 2015 1sts, which I traded away to get Watkins. Because this was an obvious rebuild I decided to use the Rebuild settings on the Calculator, for this trade. Using the Neutral mode, it looked to be a wash, but was a win in Rebuild. While a fan of Matthews, I also knew that I was not going to be competing in 2015, and some of his value was situation-based due to the Chip Kelly offense. I decided the rookie picks were worth more to me, and took a gamble that Matthews value will at worst plateau, and possibly decline if they spread the ball around a lot in Philly, or if Chip Kelly gets canned after a bad season.
Trade 2
- Gave Isaiah Crowell, Dwayne Allen
- Received Eric Ebron, Brian Quick
As you can see, I did not hold onto Crowell long. I just wanted an asset that I thought I could move, and I did, to the owner of Duke Johnson (who ironically enough used both in a massive trade to get Jeffrey). Chad has said several times that 1st round TEs never fail to produce (ie they are close to 100% to have fantasy relevant seasons). Between that, being high on him myself, and the fact that he is in a solid situation long term (I will explain in a second), convinced me that this deal was worth it, even if the trade calculator said it was an even trade.
While I do believe in the concept of owning a piece of a high-powered offense (ie Indy), I also agree with the concept of listening to what teams are showing you, and Indy is showing me that they are believing in their receivers. So I felt Allen, short term was a flex play at best, and his value could decrease with more injuries, or limited production.
On the other hand, in Detroit, while they have Tate & Megatron, in 2-3 years Megatron will be 33, Tate will be 29-30, and Ebron will be 25. So I am betting long term, perhaps Ebron’s role will be closer to Gronk/Graham/Kelce (ie option 1B to the WR 1A) than that of other TEs like Ertz-Eifert and will at least produce like M.Bennett or G.Olsen.
Trade 3
- Gave Knile Davis
- Received Charles Johnson
This trade just fell in my lap and I happily accepted. While it is possible Davis is Charles heir apparent, and Charles Johnson has more immediate value that I could use.
Trade 4
- Gave Charles Johnson, Brian Quick
- Received Michael Floyd, Wes Welker (cut for waiver claim)
To be honest, I felt it was 50-50 that the owner would accept this trade, but I took the opportunity with all the negative hype around Floyd to see if I could get him, and I did.
I have to trust in the fact that Floyd will produce again, but the fact that he has already had a mini breakout in 2013 gives me hope that in 2016 and beyond he will at least put up WR 2/3 seasons, if not more. I can also trust in the fact that if he leaves Arizona he will be a WR1 in almost any other situation (it’s not like Indy or GB will be going after him).
Overall Trade
- Gave Matthews, D. Allen, K. Davis
- Received Floyd, Ebron, 2016 1st, 2016 2nd
As you can see, many of the trades sort of were/are risky, but the end result I felt was a win. The trade calculator agrees (in all 3 settings). This should be a reminder that even if a trade is a wash, if you follow a plan, over the course of several trades/months, the end result should be in your favor.
In the end, I feel I traded one receiver with upside, and got another receiver with equal upside, but also upgraded at tight end and added future picks. All by taking risks, making package deals that made sense to me, using the trade calculator to double-check my valuations, and paying attention (and taking advantage of) to pre-season news.
Current Roster
QB Ryan, Carr, Osweiler
RB Rice, K. Robinson, M. Davis, T. Richardson, Seastrunk, Hilliard, Malcolm Brown
WR Watkins, Allen, Floyd, Latimer, Beasley, Dobson, McBride, K.Bell, Hankerson, Deandre Carter, Duron Carter
TE ASJ, Ebron, Fiedorowicz
TD Ravens
