Training camp is a key part of the dynasty calendar. Entering training camp with a plan allows you to sort through the noise and strengthen your dynasties. Answering key questions during training camp can provide an opportunity to profit.
Training Camp Reports
Training camp reports will fill up Rotoworld, Football Guys, and other sources. Fueled by beat reporters, these blurbs provide a great source of concise information about training camp performances.
While informative, be careful about what action you take based on the reports. Keep in mind that early on, players are often competing against air while wearing shorts. It is good to know the Tajae Sharpe’s of the world can perform well in these situations.
However, if you have been following the draft process here or watching your own tape, you should have a good idea of what players can do on the field. Is there room for growth? Of course. But keep expectations about what these reports tell us realistic.
A good rule of thumb to remember when evaluating reports: is the report consistent with my projected range of outcomes for the player? If it is the news should make you feel secure in your evaluation but should not move the needle much. If it is outside your range of outcomes, check your work. For example, when draft pedigree, tape, and college production all confirm the “potential Larry Fitzgerald replacement” Chad Williams does not profile that way, you can probably discount it as hype.
Look for Training Camp Profit
While you may discount it as hype, others may be feeding at the trough. Let’s call this the Tajae Sharpe rule. Is there a player that you drafted in the third round of a rookie draft in May that you can now get a first round pick for? Almost invariably you should pull the trigger.
There was a good reason Sharpe was a third round rookie pick in a bad class in 2016. While he was productive and ran great routes in college he came from a small school, was small in stature, and was not athletic.
Then suddenly training camp starts and reports anoint him the next Antonio Brown. The drum beats for a month and he vaults up over a round of rookie pick value when we did not learn anything really new. He was a polished route runner in college so the fact he can do it against air in July did not really tell us much about his ability to produce on Sundays in October.
Of course, there is an exception to every rule. But with later round 2 rookie picks and beyond, if you can cash a player out at a profit of a half round or more, you are on a successful course, particularly when you can do it without the player playing a game.
Buy Fear
There is no better way to get a discount on a player than to trade for him when his owner is scared. If we start hearing reports that Mike Williams herniated disc needs surgery, his owners will get scared. Especially if they have experienced Kevin White, Breshad Perriman or Josh Doctson recently.
Similarly, if we start hearing the narrative that Evan Engram may get off to a slow start because of all the mouths to feed in New York, his owner may become antsy. If it happens, pounce for a future 2nd or some other flip guy who is producing well in training camp.
Bottom Line
In training camp, there is a lot of news. Reporters will want to churn out content after their summer vacations. It is good to consume, but do not let the tidbits throw you off course. If you trust your evaluation of a player as a flip guy, and the opportunity presents to flip the player, do it. Hype will change values, at times drastically. Make sure you are the owner profiting by selling based on unrealistic expectations or buying based on doom and gloom projections of playing time.
