As we approach the regular season, it is time to round out your rosters and prepare for submitting weekly lineups. Activity in your leagues has likely increased and now is a great opportunity to send out a batch of trade offers. This installment will focus on the running back position.
Buy
Jacquizz Rodgers (RB57)
With Doug Martin suspended for two games to start the regular season, Jacquizz Rodgers looks to have the inside track on starting for what could be a very explosive offense in Tampa Bay. Entering the league, Rodgers projected as a pass catching back but was given the opportunity to be a bell-cow back in 2016 with the injuries to Tampa’s backfield. In his first two games as the true starter, Rodgers was given 30 and 26 carries, delivering 17 PPR points in each game. While I do not expect Rodgers to be able to support this level of workload, I will ride his early season production as long as possible until he loses the job to a returning Doug Martin or gets hurt. He is a perfect early season bridge player to give production until a rookie back can win a job, or even until Ezekiel Elliott returns from suspension.
T.J. Yeldon (RB59)
With the drafting of Leonard Fournette, it would be easy to dismiss T.J. Yeldon’s potential. While Fournette has the profile of a bell-cow back, I expect Yeldon to be involved early as a third-down back or even spelling Fournette for a few series per game. Also worth considering is that Fournette has a history of nagging injuries and Yeldon can return significant value as next man up.
Giovanni Bernard (RB40) and Jeremy Hill (RB56)
Another situation worth monitoring is in Cincinnati. After the drafting of Joe Mixon, Giovanni Bernard and Jeremy Hill are the forgotten players. Though Mixon has the skill set to be a three-down back, he also has undeniable off-field baggage. I do fully expect Mixon to be the back to own for the Bengals, but it is easy to see a scenario where Bernard is the third-down back once he recovers from his ACL injury and Hill is the short-yardage and goal-line back.
Sell
Jay Ajayi (RB7)
In the last few weeks, the concerns surrounding Jay Ajayi have begun to grow with his concussion in practice and questions about the Dolphins offense in general. With an ADP of 21 overall, Ajayi holds more value that I like to hold in a running back outside of the elite talents. I would be attempting to pivot to another high-value wide receiver, or picking up a player I like as well as a future 1st midseason.
Jordan Howard (RB6)
Last year Jordan Howard was a surprise breakout, finishing as the RB10 in PPR leagues. Similar to the discussion surrounding Jay Ajayi, I am more likely to pivot off of running backs with this value to either an older producing back or a wide receiver of equal value. My concern with Howard is the addition of Tarik Cohen may cut into third down work and I am not
Hold
This group of players has significant value that I am not opposed to paying in the right situation. Ideally, these players are on your roster after purchasing when their value was lower.
Todd Gurley (RB9)
Similarly to how I feel Jared Goff has the potential to bounce back after a rough rookie season, I believe Todd Gurley has the potential to return to his rookie year form with the addition of a new coaching staff. Also adding Sammy Watkins to the receiving core and a shift to a more run first offense, Gurley should be able to produce solid numbers in 2017 with a positive outlook for the future.
Ameer Abdullah (RB19)
I have a hard time valuing Ameer Abdullah. While I do not consider him to be the long-term answer in Detroit, Abdullah has the potential to be a three down back in a high volume offense. I prefer several other running backs around Abdullah in ADP like Carlos Hyde or Alvin Kamara, but he is a prime example of the difference between ADP and trade value. When I have tried to sell for even a future first round pick I have not been successful.
Derrick Henry (RB16)
Derrick Henry is a polarizing player in the fantasy football market. Since he is clearly a backup to Demarco Murray, it is hard to pay starter level prices. At the same time, he has shown enough to provide hope that he could be a top-5 running back if Murray gets hurt. I would not want to rely on Henry in my starting lineup for 2017, but if he is your RB3 or below, he is one of the best bench players to have due to his upside.
