This is a guest contribution on James White from Jordan McNamara, UTH Subscriber. Thanks for sharing your talents and perspective, Jordan.
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News broke Sunday that New England Patriots running back Dion Lewis will undergo surgery on his left knee. This is the second surgery on Lewis’s knee after he tore his ACL in his left knee in November 2015. Lewis’s surgery is being described as a “clean up” procedure, and he is reported to miss eight to 10 weeks. In the best case scenario, he returns in the middle of October around Week 6.
While predicting what Bill Belichick will do is a fool’s errand, Lewis’s absence creates an opportunity for James White to establish himself in the “small back” receiving role in New England.
White is going off the board in Round 19 of 12-team start-up drafts as RB75. Without question, White’s value is going to rise leading up to Week 1.
White was a Round 4 NFL draft pick in 2014, widely seen as the heir apparent to Shane Vereen as the pass-catching back in the New England backfield. He measured in at the combine at 5’9” and 204 pounds, with a -25% Athleticism score, +84% Rushing score, and +19% Receiving score.
He saw little action as a rookie, appearing in only three games with 14 touches. In 2015, White was played in 14 games and had 40 receptions for 410 yards on 54 targets with only 22 carries. After Lewis was injured in week eight, White had 44 targets. Projecting White’s eight games after Lewis’s injury over a full season would be a line of 88 targets, 66 catches, 716 yards, and 8 touchdowns and less than 100 yards rushing.
The Patriots have shown no plans for heavily involving White in the running game, and projecting 88 targets to White is a stretch with the possibility of Lewis returning in season and New England’s use of Brandon Bolden in the passing game. If Lewis’s return is delayed or Bolden is cut, White could consolidate his role in the passing game, but as of now his season-long role is far from certain.
White is likely to have the primary receiving back role in New England, but in a smaller capacity than Lewis, meaning larger roles for players like Martellus Bennett and Julian Edelman.
In a best case scenario, White presents as a Theo Riddick-type of player, with less certainty. White’s dynasty stock is certainly rising but comes at risk. If you can use White to package up for a safer asset, now is a great opportunity. If you own James White and can get a 2017 2nd round rookie pick, that would be a great cash out.
