Below are the second set of 2018 Workhorse Matrix Grades. The elite running backs can be found here, and discussions about the matrix can be found here and here.
Grade 8 – Capability to be Multi-Year Starter
Kerryon Johnson
Kerryon Johnson’s tape shows a strong interior runner, with the ability to see and hit holes, and run powerfully through contact. Johnson has good lateral agility to avoid contact and find creases which he attacks with a north-south running style. Johnson is also a good receiver out of the backfield.
Kerryon Johnson rerpresents a traditionally cautious profile. At 213 pounds, and only slightly above average athlete (59%), Johnson represents a tweener profile. He breaks the rule on caution around his profile because of his rushing ability (78%) and receiving ability (87%), combined with his strong interior running style. While caution should be used projecting weight gains, Johnson “runs big” at 213 pounds, and has an acceptable BMI of 29.3.
Johnson’s overall projection score of 91% and likely selection on day two points to his ability to start for an extended period of time. Johnson may not start from week one, but is talented enough to start and hold a starting job when he wins one.
Sony Michel
Sony Michel has an interesting profile. He entered Georgia as a 5 star recruit, but got caught in the pipeline of Georgia. Michel had a strong 2015 season, rushing for 1,136 yards and 8 touchdowns while Nick Chubb was injured. When Chubb returned, Michel split time with Chubb, throughout 2016 and 2017. Michel’s metrics are middling as a result. Michel produced below average rushing (45%) and slightly above average receiving numbers (55%).
Most troubling about Michel’s profile is the explosiveness he showed on tape, did not translate to his combine testing (48%).
On film, Michel is a big time player who can run with power at all three levels. He has the ability to plant and cut a full speed, which would make him a good fit for a zone scheme. He is a good instinctual runner with a variety of moves at the second level to make defenders miss. One key question is his ball security, and Michel’s propensity to fumble.
Overall, Michel is a solid long term starting option in the NFL.
Kalen Ballage
Kalen Ballage is an example of why rankings are a terrible form of valuing players. Ballage’s range of outcomes is so wide, that a single number can never reflect his value.
The aim of the matrix is to categorize players and by doing so, exploit market inefficiencies. When two similarly players with similar upside are valued differently, the cheapest is a great investment. This is how Jay Ajayi became such a good value in 2016.
Ballage is largely a projection and his profile points to a boom bust profile. He has a below average rushing score (45%) but a solid receiving score (71%). Ballage shined at the combined, where he ran a 4.46 second 40 yard dash at 228 pounds. All together, Ballage produced a 95% athleticism score.
The athleticism points to a high upside, but his production profile points to caution. The lack of production was largely a result of a bad committee with Demario Richard, and some bad coaching.
In many respects, Ballage’s storyline mirrors Alvin Kamara’s pre-draft profile. Ballage may bust, but his receiving ability, athleticism, and size are rare. Ballage needs coaching, but a good coach, who properly uses Ballage, could tap into Ballage immense potential. He may never reach his upside, but he has the potential to be a multi-year starter in the NFL.
Grade 7 – Capability to Fill In for Season-Long Role, Enter Y+1 With Backfield Control
Rashaad Penny
Penny looks attractive on paper. He is 220 pounds, and ran for over 2,000 yards in his final season at San Diego State. Penny’s best attributes as a runner are his vision, patience and the ability to set up blocks. Penny is a good athlete (84%), but his rushing (69%) and receiving (56%) are middling because he spent three seasons behind Donnel Pumphrey.
The biggest question about Penny is whether he is a difference maker. He does not run with power, and his stats were largely bouyed by big runs set up by San Diego State’s offensive line. He will get what is blocked, but does not do a lot more on film.
Penny profiles with the ability to start, based on his size and likely day two draft capital, but the upside is questionable. He is most likely to settle in as a low end RB2.
