This Nick Chubb preview is part of a series of previews of the 2017 college football season. These previews aim to provide for scouting prospects in the 2018 rookie draft.
2016 Tape Review
Chubb’s Georgia tape is a tale of before and after. Before his 2015 knee injury, Chubb was explosive and capable of providing big plays with burst and acceleration. As a true freshman, his 2014 Bowl Game performance against Louisville was a 33-carry, 266-yard, and 2-touchdown masterpiece. Chubb was explosive, powerful and decisive in the game. It was rare that he was taken down on first contact, particularly at the second level.
Chubb continued to show well in 2015, posting 120 or more yards in the first five games of the season before a devastating knee injury ended his season against Tennessee in October.
Chubb rehabbed and returned for the start of the 2016 season. He appeared in full form with a 32-carry, 222-yard and 2-touchdown performance against North Carolina in the opening weekend of the season. However, as the season went on, it was apparent Chubb was not his 2015 self.
Chubb finished the season with 224 carries, 1130 yards, 5 yards per carry and 8 touchdowns. While respectable, it was a far cry from the 7.4 yards per carry he averaged in his first two collegiate seasons.
His tape showed a player who did not have the same burst when he returned from his injury. There were runs Chubb made to get the corner on plays in 2015 that he just could not execute in 2016. Instead of turning the plays into 10+ yard chain moving runs, in 2016 Chubb would be dragged down by a pursuing defender at the line of scrimmage.
Matrix Grade: 9 (Capability to Maintain 3+ years)
Chubb has a very high ceiling. He was a 5-star recruit when he joined the best running back factory outside of the SEC West. He proceeded to dominate SEC defenses and churn out a gaudy 7.4 yards per carry in his first 17 games at Georgia.
While people love his power, he has also showed good movement skills. He is more of a one cut runner than a dancer, but he shows the ability to plant and alter his direction while maintaining north-south running style. At 225+ pounds, Chubb runs with aggression, power, and movement skills that provide a very high upside.
2017 Preview
Chubb’s draft stock and matrix grade hinge on his 2017 performance. If he repeats his 2016 performance, he could be a day 3 pick. If he returns to his 2015 performance, he is capable of being a day 1 pick.
The injury is obviously a concern. The knee surgery was to repair the PCL and other ligaments in the knee. Notably, there was no ACL tear. While watching the tape on Chubb, it is possible the knee was not at full health, or Chubb just could not trust it to let it go 100%.
It is also possible Chubb struggled with his conditioning post injury and as a result, was carrying some bad weight. Chubb looked heavier last year, and while we are Team Big Running Back, we are looking for weight like Samaje Perine not Chris Farley. A spare 5 to 10 pounds could certainly explain his lack of burst. This is the most correctable of the possible explanations and improvements in burst and speed could confirm his better preparation.
Bottom Line
Chubb has huge upside as evidenced by his 9 in the matrix score. This season and the pre-draft process will be vital to his draft stock. There may be no running back with as high of a ceiling but as low of a floor. He could one of the first three running backs draft in May, but he could also go undrafted if injuries have truly sapped his five-star athleticism. His early 2017 tape will be crucial to watch to gauge his physique and athleticism to evaluate the depth of the first round of rookie picks.
