Patience is a vital aspect of being a dynasty owner. We wring our hands about the incoming rookie class year in and year out. Ideally our target players enter the league, immediately announce their presence, develop quickly in viable starting options, and bolster our strong crop of young talents from previous seasons. That is not the norm for a majority of rookies, however, depth charts, the whims of coaches, a fumble, a missed blocking assignment, or a nagging injury can twart even the best prospects’ chances at early career production. In these cases, with limited NFL tape on a player, I stick to the pre-draft evaluation more often than not. The cream sticks on NFL rosters and, at a higher rate, will emerge into more meaningful roles for a longer duration. Here are the best metric running backs yet to have an impact in the NFL:
- Player: Ka’Deem Carey
- Draft Year: 2014
- Projection Model Score: 75
Highlights: Carey was once in the conversation for the top running back spot in the 2014 draft class. The combine dud heard round the world started his fall and ultimately fell out of the top-100 in the NFL draft. Landing behind Matt Forte was a hit to his initial value, but Carey is one of the few clear-cut primary backups out there. With projection scores of 88+ in rushing and receiving, running backs like that rarely outright bust. At worst they end up as very good NFL backups with upside from there.
- Player: Joseph Randle
- Draft Year: 2013
- Projection Model Score: 74
Highlights: Randle is getting a ton of buzz this week with the hand injury to DeMarco Murray. Randle has rushing and receiving score of 75+ in the projection model and has passed the eye test in limited action this season.
- Player: LaMichael James
- Draft Year: 2012
- Projection Model Score: 73
Highlights: James has bounced around the NFL since being a surprise round two draft pick. James is an average athlete for his size (which is on the small side), but his production in college was top-shelf. A deep-league special, James is worthy of a stash in leagues with, say 30+ offensive spots, at least into the offseason to see how his situation develops.
- Player: Robert Turbin
- Draft Year: 2012
- Projection Model Score: 76
Highlights: Christine Michael gets all the ‘Seattle backup running back’ love, but Turbin is no slouch. Turbin is one of the few running backs since 1999 to have athleticism, rushing, and receiving scores of 75+ in the projection model. The good news is Turbin is dirt cheap compared to Marshawn Lynch and Christine Michael for a shot at the lead back in Seattle for 2015.
- Player: Orleans Darkwa
- Draft Year: 2014
- Projection Model Score: 60
Highlights: I was on Darkwa in the offseason as a deep sleeper. The situation in Miami was decent, but Darkwa has moved on to the Giants of late. Darkwa is a better receiver than pure runner, which would mesh well with Andre Williams in a potential future duo.
- Player: James White
- Draft Year: 2014
- Projection Model Score: 60
Highlights: White had some buzz in the preseason and has since been on the bench in New England as Jonas Gray and LeGarrette Blount have been the between-the-tackles options. White is a middling athlete, but his well-rounded age-weighted production is worth monitoring. With Blount under contract for 2015 and Tyler Gaffney coming back, consider White a long-shot with situational appeal.
- Player: Charcandrick West
- Draft Year: 2014
- Projection Model Score: 67
Highlights: A deep league special, West is one of the darkhorse specials in the 2014 class. His projection model profile includes above-average marks across the board. Landing in Kansas City kept West under the radar, but with a 4.46 40-time, 41″ vertical, and 10’10” broad jump, West is a metric special that deserves more love in dynasty.
- Player: Rex Burkhead
- Draft Year: 2013
- Projection Model Score: 67
Highlights: A year ago, I was stashing Burkhead in various dynasty leagues with no other legit option behind Giovani Bernard in Cincinnati. Since the Bengals drafted Jeremy Hill, which closed that door. Burkhead is still a quality player in his own right.
- Player: Antonio Andrews
- Draft Year: 2014
- Projection Model Score: 61
Highlights: I am not going to sugarcoat this – Andrews is a terrible athlete. In fact, Andrews has the lowest athleticism score (17) of any running back prospect since 1999 with an overall projection model of 60+, the baseline used for this search. Andrews’ age-weighted production in college was strong despite his fullback-like athleticism. The Tennessee depth chart is not settled heading into the offseason (maybe Andrews has the football desired by the coaching staff?), a plus for an undrafted back to make a possible impact.
- Player: De’Anthony Thomas
- Draft Year: 2014
- Projection Model Score: 63
Highlights: Thomas has been seeing playing time in Kansas City, but few dynasty owners are buying him as a potential fantasy impact player due to his size. He was hyper-productive in the passing game in college and an average rusher at Oregon. The eye test for Thomas in the NFL has certainly been better than the woeful athleticism score of 20 by the numbers, especially considering his weight of 174 pounds. In deep PPR leagues or ones with return yardage bonuses, Thomas is in play as an underrated asset.
